Electoral Panorama / Panorama Electoral

I'm very pleased to announce that Part I of Federal Elections in the United States of America is now online, with the results of the 1996, 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, as well as state-level general election maps for presidential, U.S. Senate and House of Representatives elections since 1996 (which include 2000-2006 Senate and House election maps originally published in this blog for the 2006 mid-term election).

Speaking of election maps, I would like to note that for House of Representatives elections, map colors are determined according to the number of seats, not votes; the latter are only used to break ties in the number of seats. Thus, in the 2006 election both Arizona and Mississippi had equal party representation in the House, but the Republican Party won a majority of the popular vote in these two states, and consequently both appear red on the map. Incidentally, I use the exact same procedure for other countries' election maps.

(This posting is also available in English.)

Me complace anunciar la publicación de la primera parte de Elecciones Presidenciales y Legislativas en Chile, que presenta los resultados de las elecciones generales celebradas en el país sudamericano a partir de 1989.

Por cierto, hoy se cumple el vigésimo aniversario del referéndum del 5 de octubre de 1988, en el cual el pueblo chileno rechazó la continuación del mandato presidencial del Gen. Augusto Pinochet hasta 1997. Chile's democratic restoration, two decades on, en Global Economy Matters presenta una breve exposición en inglés sobre la transición de Chile a la democracia.

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

I'm pleased to announce the publication of Part I of Presidential and Legislative Elections in Chile, which presents the results of general elections held in the South American country since 1989.

By the way, today's the twentieth anniversary of the October 5, 1988 referendum, in which the people of Chile rejected the continuation of Gen. Augusto Pinochet's presidential mandate until 1997. Chile's democratic restoration, two decades on, on Global Economy Matters, has a brief overview of Chile's transition to democracy.

Austria's two major parties emerged from Sunday's early parliamentary election in the Central European country with their worst election results since 1945. Both the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) and the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) - which had ruled Austria in a grand coalition government for a year-and-a-half - lost ground with respect to the previous election, but Sunday's vote was a further major setback for the People's Party, coming on top of heavy losses in the 2006 legislative election, and the center-right party's gains since 1999 have now been completely wiped out. On the other hand, the Social Democrats had less severe losses, and the left-of-center party was able to top the poll once more.

Meanwhile, the election's big winners were the country's two far-right parties, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ), the latter a 2005 FPÖ breakaway. Running separately, the two parties nearly doubled their combined share of the vote, which soared from 15.1% in 2006 to 29% this year - a figure which also stands above the FPÖ's best-ever result of 26.9% in 1999. In fact, other than for the division of the far-right vote between FPÖ and BZÖ, the outcome of this year's vote closely resembles that of the 1999 parliamentary election, and it is far from clear what kind of government will emerge from the election.

Federal Elections in Austria - Elections to the Nationalrat (National Council) has federal- and state-level results of parliamentary elections in Austria since 1945, including preliminary 2008 general election results.

Austria's SPÖ and ÖVP were not the only ruling parties to be humbled at the polls on Sunday. Just across the border, Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) lost its absolute majority in the Landtag (state legislature) for the first time since 1962. However, the CSU - the Bavarian counterpart of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) - remains the largest party in Germany's wealthiest state, and barring an unlikely alliance of the four opposition parties that will be represented in the new Landtag - namely the Social Democrats (SPD), the Free Voters, the Greens and the Free Democrats (F.D.P.) - it's likely to remain in power in Munich, possibly in coalition with the liberal F.D.P., which secured Landtag representation for the first time since 1990.

The Bavarian State Office for Statistics and Data Processing has detailed results in German of Sunday's state election here.

Less than nine months after coming to power, Ukraine's fragile, pro-western coalition government has collapsed, following months of wrangling between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. While the latter is expected to remain as caretaker head of government, she has only 30 days to cobble a new coalition cabinet; otherwise, the president may call an early parliamentary election - Ukraine's third in as many years.

The ruling coalition's collapse was triggered by differences between the president and the prime minister over support for Georgia during its recent conflict with Russia, which in due course led Ukraine's Supreme Council (Parliament) to pass laws curtailing the president's powers; Yushchenko regards these laws - which were adopted with the support of the opposition, pro-Russian Party of Regions - as a parliamentary "coup."

The clash between Yushchenko and Tymonshenko is by no means the first - three years ago, he fired her and the entire cabinet on grounds of incompetence, following a period of increasingly bitter in-fighting - and it's unlikely to be the last: Mrs. Tymoshenko is widely expected to run in the next presidential election (to be held in 2009 or 2010), and opinion polls have her in a tight race with Party of Regions leader Vyktor Yanukovych, while President Yushchenko is trailing far behind.

Ukraine holds an early parliamentary election, at Global Economy Matters covers the parliamentary election of September 2007 in the Eastern European country, and includes a comprehensive review of political developments in Ukraine since the former Soviet republic declared its independence in 1991.

Update

On October 8, 2008, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko dissolved the Supreme Council and called an early parliamentary election, which will be held next December 7. However, Prime Minister Tymoshenko's Bloc subsequently filed a lawsuit to stop the election, and on Saturday, October 11, Kiev's District Administrative Court suspended the presidential decree that dissolved Parliament and called the early election. Meanwhile, President Yushchenko insists the order has no authority since he fired the judge before he handed down the ruling, and the matter is now in the hands of Kiev's Appeals Court.

The political tug-of-war between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko comes in the middle of a global financial crisis, and as Edward Hugh writes on Global Economy Matters, Ukraine Wobbles As The Financial Ground Beneath It Trembles.

As expected, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has called an early parliamentary election for next October 14. Harper, who has been in power since January 2006, heading a Conservative Party minority government, hopes to secure an absolute House of Commons majority in the upcoming general election - Canada's third in five years.

Federal Elections in Canada - Elections to the House of Commons describes Canada's electoral system, and includes results of Canadian general elections since 1993.

Meanwhile, Forbes.com reports that Japan may also be heading for an early parliamentary election, following the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda earlier this month. Although the ruling Liberal Democratic Party commands a large majority in the House of Representatives - the lower house of Japan's bicameral Parliament - the opposition parties have held a majority of seats in the House of Councillors - the upper house - since July of last year, and the two legislative bodies have clashed over a number of issues.

Parliamentary Elections in Japan has an overview of the Japanese electoral system, with election results since 1996 for both the House of Councillors and the House of Representatives.

(This posting is also available in English.)

Dos norteamericanos que residen en Puerto Rico pero que no hablan español han radicado un pleito ante el Tribunal Federal para que se le ordene a la Comisión Estatal de Elecciones (CEE) imprimir papeletas en inglés para las elecciones generales del próximo 4 de noviembre.

Al presente, la Comisión imprime papeletas e instrucciones de votación para las elecciones generales solamente en español, la lengua hablada por la abrumadora mayoría de los cuatro millones de habitantes de la isla caribeña (aunque en 2000 la Comisión llegó a imprimir una papeleta en ambos idiomas para la elección presidencial cancelada). De hecho, el pasado mes de abril la CEE discutió el asunto, pero los comisionados electorales que representan a los cuatro partidos políticos inscritos en Puerto Rico no pudieron llegar a un acuerdo, y en julio el presidente de la CEE, Ramón Gómez determinó que no es un requerimiento la impresión de las papeletas también en inglés, toda vez que no existe ninguna ley o reglamentación a esos fines.

En la demanda radicada se observa que de acuerdo a las estadísticas de idioma del Censo 2000 - que se calcularon a partir de una muestra de 1 en 6 en lugar de un conteo al 100% - el 14.4% de la población de Puerto Rico con cinco años de edad o más habla inglés solamente. Sin embargo, debe señalarse que en épocas recientes ha habido variaciones significativas en las cifras sobre la población exclusivamente anglófona de Puerto Rico ofrecidas por el Negociado del Censo de los E.E.U.U. De hecho, las estadísticas más recientes de la Encuesta sobre la Comunidad de Puerto Rico de 2006 del Negociado del Censo indican que poco menos de un 4.7% de los habitantes de Puerto Rico hablan solamente inglés, mientras que un 95.2% habla español. Estas cifras se aproximan bastante a las estadísticas de los censos de 1980 y 1990, las cuales indican que el 98.2% de la población de Puerto Rico hablaba español - mientras que casi tres cuartas partes del restante 1.8% no hablaba español ni inglés.

Los demandantes también plantean que en Puerto Rico tanto el inglés como el español son idiomas oficiales. No obstante, tras 110 años bajo la bandera estadounidense, el español sigue siendo la lengua dominante; la zona metropolitana de San Juan es más o menos bilingüe, pero el resto de Puerto Rico es casi exclusivamente hispanoparlante. De hecho, para el 2006, solamente una minoría reducida (15.1%) de la población hispanoparlante de Puerto Rico hablaba el inglés "muy bien," y muchos puertorriqueños - incluyendo a un gran número de empleados de gobierno - hablan muy poco o nada de inglés. Más aún, los partidos políticos de Puerto Rico siempre han llevado a cabo sus campañas electorales exclusivamente en español.

Dado que las cifras recientes de la Encuesta sobre la Comunidad de Puerto Rico de 2006 ponen en tela de juicio los anteriores hallazgos en materia de idioma del Censo 2000, no está claro si verdaderamente existe la necesidad de implantar papeletas electorales en inglés - al menos a nivel de todo Puerto Rico - pero los tribunales puede que decidan lo contrario.

Enlace: Quieren papeletas en inglés

Actualización

El 27 de agosto de 2008, el juez federal José Fusté ordenó a la CEE tener disponibles papeletas bilingües para las elecciones generales que se avecinan. El comisionado electoral del Partido Popular Democrático apeló la decisión, pero el 4 de septiembre la Corte del Primer Circuito de Apelaciones de los E.E.U.U. desestimó la apelación.

Enlace: "Yes" a las papeleta bilingüe

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

Two mainland Americans who reside in Puerto Rico but don't speak Spanish have filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court to force the Commonwealth Elections Commission (CEE) to print English-language ballots for the upcoming November 4 general election.

Currently, the Commission prints general election ballots and voting instructions only in Spanish, which is the language spoken by the overwhelming majority of the Caribbean island's four million inhabitants (although in 2000 the Commission did print a dual-language ballot for the cancelled presidential election). In fact, last April the Commission discussed the matter, but the electoral commissioners representing Puerto Rico's four registered political parties failed to reach an agreement, and in July CEE Chairman Ramón Gómez ruled that there is no requirement to print ballots in English as well, as there is no law or regulation to that end.

The filed lawsuit notes that according to the Census 2000 language statistics - which were calculated from a 1-in-6 sample instead of a 100% count - 14.4% of Puerto Rico's population over the age of five speaks only English. However, it should be noted that in recent times there have been significant variations in the U.S. Census Bureau figures on Puerto Rico's anglophone-only population. In fact, the most recent statistics from the Census Bureau's 2006 Puerto Rico Community Survey indicate that just under 4.7% of Puerto Rico's inhabitants speak only English, while 95.2% speak Spanish. These figures - which have a margin of error of +/-0.2% - come fairly close to the statistics from the 1980 and 1990 censuses, which indicate that 98.2% of the population of Puerto Rico spoke Spanish - while nearly three-quarters of the remaining 1.8% spoke neither Spanish nor English.

The plaintiffs also make the case that in Puerto Rico both English and Spanish are official languages. Nonetheless, after 110 years under the U.S. flag, Spanish remains the dominant language; the San Juan metro area is more-or-less bilingual, but the rest of Puerto Rico is almost exclusively Spanish-speaking. In fact, as of 2006 only a small minority (15.1%) of Puerto Rico's Spanish-speaking population spoke English "very well," and many Puerto Ricans - including a large number of government employees - speak little or no English. Moreover, Puerto Rico's political parties have always run their election campaigns exclusively in Spanish.

Given that recent statistics from the 2006 Puerto Rico Community Survey cast doubt on previous Census 2000 language findings, it's not clear that there is a need to establish English-language election ballots - at least on a Puerto Rico-wide basis - but the courts may rule otherwise.

Link (in Spanish): Quieren papeletas en inglés

Update

On August 27, 2008, U.S. District Court Judge José Fusté ordered the Commonwealth Elections Commission to have bilingual ballots available for the upcoming general election. The Popular Democratic Party's electoral commissioner appealed the ruling, but on September 4 the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit dismissed the appeal.

Link (in Spanish): "Yes" a las papeleta bilingüe

Last week, Belgium was plunged into political crisis once more when Prime Minister Yves Leterme offered to resign after only four months in power. Leterme assumed office last March - nine months after a general election was held in June 2007 - presiding over a coalition of Flemish and Francophone Christian Democrats and Liberals, as well as Francophone Socialists.

Belgium is linguistically divided between the Dutch-speaking Flemings in the north and the French-speaking Walloons in the south. Dutch speakers outnumber Francophones by a ratio of approximately 3-to-2, but the country was originally established in 1830 as an unitary polity with French as the sole official language; Dutch would not gain equal footing with French until 1898. Since 1970 a series of constitutional reforms have gradually transformed Belgium into a federal kingdom, and the two linguistic communities co-exist peacefully (along with a small German-speaking minority in the south-eastern part of the country), but relations are sometimes less than cordial, to put it mildly. Currently, Flemish parties want greater powers over taxation and social security to be devolved to the regions, although politicians in Wallonia - which is plagued by high unemployment - fear that would lead to a cut in subsidies from wealthier Flanders. In addition, both sides have been at odds over the rights of French speakers living in Flemish suburbs around Brussels, the officially bilingual capital of Belgium.

Leterme's government originally planned to focus mainly on immigration, tax cuts and pension benefits (although little was accomplished beyond balancing the budget), while largely avoiding the thorny issue of constitutional reform for further devolution of powers to the regions (other than for the transfer of minor powers over industrial policy and housing); instead, talks on increased devolution were to continue. However, the parties were unable to reach an agreement on the issue by Leterme's self-imposed deadline of July 15, triggering his resignation. While King Albert II subsequently rejected Leterme's offer to step down, the crisis is far from over, and the Belgian monarch appointed three senior political figures to find a way out of the impasse.

The ongoing crisis has led to renewed speculation about the possible break-up of Belgium into separate Flemish and Walloon nations, not unlike the peaceful, "velvet divorce" dissolution of Czechoslovakia in 1992. In fact, opinion polls indicate nearly one out of every two Flemings support the establishment of a sovereign Flanders. However, it should be noted that in Czechoslovakia the Czechs and the Slovaks lived within clearly defined, contiguous geographical areas which became the country's successor states, whereas Belgium's overwhelmingly Francophone capital, Brussels, is surrounded by Flemish territory, and it's far from clear what would become of it if the country actually broke up.

Ingrid Robeyns' The ingredients of the Belgian cocktail, published on Crooked Timber, has an excellent, in-depth review of the issues affecting Belgium. In addition, Federal Elections in Belgium has an overview of Belgium's electoral system and party politics, along with Belgian parliamentary election results since 1995, which now include multi-member constituency-level maps for the 2003 and 2007 general elections.