|
|
Mon, Jun 11, 2018
|
Voter turnout and invalid ballots under STV in Ireland
|
In recent years, a growing number of jurisdictions in the United States have
adopted or given serious consideration to the Ranked Choice Voting (RCV)
electoral system. At the same time, there have been concerns from some quarters
that such a system would lead to a drastic increase in the number of invalid
ballots, and even to a decrease in voter turnout.
However, it should be noted that RCV has been in place for elections in the
Republic of Ireland since 1920, when the entire island
was still an integral part of the United Kingdom. RCV is known as the Single
Transferable Vote (STV) electoral system in Ireland, where the term is used
for elections carried out in multi-member districts as well as single-winner
races. Elsewhere, the system used in the latter case is known as the Alternative
Vote (AV) or Instant Runoff Voting (IRV).
All the same, Ireland's implementation of STV is of particular relevance
to the U.S., due to the fact that in the same manner as its American counterparts,
the system does not require voters to indicate preferences for each and every
candidate on the ballot. Moreover, voting in Ireland is not compulsory, just
like in the U.S. And while elected officials in Ireland are largely chosen
by proportional representation in multi-member districts under STV, there
have been a number of single-winner contests, most notably among them the
elections for the country's largely ceremonial presidency, which has
a seven-year term of office.
Since its present day constitution came into force in 1937, Ireland has or
would have held thirteen presidential elections. However, in the event only
one candidate is nominated, he or she is declared elected and no voting takes
place: this was the case in 1938, 1952, 1974, 1976, 1983 and 2004. According
to official election results published by Ireland's
Department of Housing, Planning and
Local Government, for the seven presidential elections contested by two
or more candidates, the voter turnout and invalid ballot figures were as
follows:
|
Year |
|
|
Election |
|
|
Electorate |
|
|
Votes
Cast |
|
|
% |
|
|
Invalid
Ballots |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
2011 |
|
|
Presidential |
|
|
3,191,157 |
|
|
1,790,438 |
|
|
56.1 |
|
|
18,676 |
|
|
1.0 |
|
|
1997 |
|
|
Presidential |
|
|
2,739,529 |
|
|
1,279,688 |
|
|
46.7 |
|
|
9,852 |
|
|
0.8 |
|
|
1990 |
|
|
Presidential |
|
|
2,471,308 |
|
|
1,584,095 |
|
|
64.1 |
|
|
9,444 |
|
|
0.6 |
|
|
1973 |
|
|
Presidential |
|
|
1,977,817 |
|
|
1,230,584 |
|
|
62.2 |
|
|
6,946 |
|
|
0.6 |
|
|
1966 |
|
|
Presidential |
|
|
1,709,161 |
|
|
1,116,915 |
|
|
65.3 |
|
|
9,910 |
|
|
0.9 |
|
|
1959 |
|
|
Presidential |
|
|
1,678,450 |
|
|
979,628 |
|
|
58.4 |
|
|
24,089 |
|
|
2.5 |
|
|
1945 |
|
|
Presidential |
|
|
1,803,463 |
|
|
1,136,625 |
|
|
63.0 |
|
|
50,287 |
|
|
4.4 |
|
|
The average turnout rate for presidential elections in Ireland currently
stands at 59.4%, a figure comparable to the turnout rate in recent U.S.
presidential elections. Moreover, voter turnout has not shown a clear downward
trend in Irish presidential elections: to be certain, it fell sharply in
1997, but rebounded in 2011. Meanwhile, invalid ballots (including blank
votes) have been on average just 1.5% of the total number of votes cast,
and that figure drops to 0.8% for presidential elections held since 1966.
It should also be noted that similar trends can be observed in other types
of elections in Ireland throughout this century, as shown in the following
table:
|
Year |
|
|
Election |
|
|
Electorate |
|
|
Votes
Cast |
|
|
% |
|
|
Invalid
Ballots |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
2011 |
|
|
Presidential |
|
|
3,191,157 |
|
|
1,790,438 |
|
|
56.1 |
|
|
18,676 |
|
|
1.0 |
|
|
|
2016 |
|
|
Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives) |
|
|
3,305,110 |
|
|
2,151,293 |
|
|
65.1 |
|
|
18,398 |
|
|
0.9 |
|
|
2011 |
|
|
Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives) |
|
|
3,209,244 |
|
|
2,243,176 |
|
|
69.9 |
|
|
22,817 |
|
|
1.0 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives) |
|
|
3,110,914 |
|
|
2,085,245 |
|
|
67.0 |
|
|
19,435 |
|
|
0.9 |
|
|
2002 |
|
|
Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives) |
|
|
3,002,173 |
|
|
1,878,609 |
|
|
62.6 |
|
|
20,707 |
|
|
1.1 |
|
|
|
2014 |
|
|
European Parliament |
|
|
3,245,348 |
|
|
1,701,942 |
|
|
52.4 |
|
|
45,424 |
|
|
2.7 |
|
|
2009 |
|
|
European Parliament |
|
|
3,199,289 |
|
|
1,875,920 |
|
|
58.6 |
|
|
46,607 |
|
|
2.5 |
|
|
2004 |
|
|
European Parliament |
|
|
3,143,025 |
|
|
1,841,335 |
|
|
58.6 |
|
|
60,567 |
|
|
3.3 |
|
|
|
2014 |
|
|
Local (All Councils) |
|
|
3,328,603 |
|
|
1,720,896 |
|
|
51.7 |
|
|
22,286 |
|
|
1.3 |
|
|
2009 |
|
|
Local (City and County Councils) |
|
|
3,297,426 |
|
|
1,905,057 |
|
|
57.8 |
|
|
24,489 |
|
|
1.3 |
|
|
2009 |
|
|
Local (Borough and Town Councils) |
|
|
542,043 |
|
|
315,387 |
|
|
58.2 |
|
|
4,470 |
|
|
1.4 |
|
|
2004 |
|
|
Local (City and County Councils) |
|
|
3,166,033 |
|
|
1,856,570 |
|
|
58.6 |
|
|
36,809 |
|
|
2.0 |
|
|
2004 |
|
|
Local (Borough and Town Councils) |
|
|
529,937 |
|
|
306,195 |
|
|
57.8 |
|
|
5,396 |
|
|
1.8 |
|
|
The higher voter turnout rate for Dáil elections stems from the fact
that Ireland, like most European countries, is a parliamentary polity: as
such, the head of government or prime minister - the Taoiseach - is chosen
by the party or parties commanding a majority of seats in the House of
Representatives.
In conclusion, STV in Ireland has led to neither a decline in voter turnout,
nor to significant invalid ballot totals. To be certain, these are legitimate
concerns in the U.S., not least because in many ways it is different from
Ireland, but even so the Irish experience shows that it is not a foregone
conclusion that the adoption of RCV will in and of itself lead inevitably
to an scenario in which such concerns become a reality.
|
posted by Manuel Álvarez-Rivera : 06/11/2018 16:32 | permanent link |
|
Tue, Jun 05, 2018
|
Composition of the Italian Parliament following the March 2018 general election
|
The official March 4, 2018 general election results published by Italy's Ministry of the Interior - available on this website's Italy page - do not indicate the specific party affiliation of single-member college candidates elected by party alliances. This omission becomes particularly problematic in light of the fact that one of the parties in the incoming populist coalition cabinet - namely the Northern League - won an unspecified number of single-member college seats as part of an alliance with other center-right parties, which nevertheless will not be part of the new government.
Fortunately, the Italian Chamber of Deputies and Senate websites publish the parliamentary group affiliation of deputies and senators, which I have used to prepare the tables shown below, summarizing the new party composition of both houses of the Italian Parliament. That said, it must be underscored that the figures published on this entry do not reflect changes in party membership or parliamentary group affiliation since members of the newly-elected Parliament were sworn in last March.
As such, following the general election held in Italy last March, the party composition of the Chamber of Deputies stood as follows:
|
Ticket |
|
|
Italy
Seats |
|
|
Overseas
Seats |
|
|
Total
Seats |
|
|
|
Forza Italia, Lega, Fratelli d'Italia, UDC |
|
|
262 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
265 |
|
|
Lega |
|
|
123 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
125 |
|
|
Forza Italia |
|
|
103 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
104 |
|
|
Fratelli d'Italia |
|
|
32 |
|
|
0 |
|
|
32 |
|
|
Noi con l'Italia - UDC |
|
|
4 |
|
|
0 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
Movimento 5 Stelle |
|
|
226 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
227 |
|
|
PD, +Europa, SVP-PATT, Civica Popolare, Italia Europa
Insieme |
|
|
116 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
122 |
|
|
Partito Democratico |
|
|
107 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
112 |
|
|
SVP - PATT |
|
|
4 |
|
|
- |
|
|
4 |
|
|
+Europa |
|
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
Civica Popolare |
|
|
2 |
|
|
0 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
Italia Europa Insieme |
|
|
1 |
|
|
- |
|
|
1 |
|
|
Union Valdôtaine |
|
|
0 |
|
|
- |
|
|
0 |
|
|
Liberi e Uguali |
|
|
14 |
|
|
0 |
|
|
14 |
|
|
Movimento Associativo Italiani all'Estero |
|
|
- |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
Unione Sudamericana Emigrati Italiani |
|
|
- |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
618 |
|
|
12 |
|
|
630 |
|
|
Meanwhile, the party composition of the Italian Senate following the March 2018 election was as follows:
|
Ticket |
|
|
Italy
Seats |
|
|
Overseas
Seats |
|
|
Total
Seats |
|
|
|
Forza Italia, Lega, Fratelli d'Italia, UDC |
|
|
135 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
137 |
|
|
Forza Italia |
|
|
59 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
61 |
|
|
Lega |
|
|
58 |
|
|
0 |
|
|
58 |
|
|
Fratelli d'Italia |
|
|
18 |
|
|
0 |
|
|
18 |
|
|
Noi con l'Italia - UDC |
|
|
0 |
|
|
0 |
|
|
0 |
|
|
Movimento 5 Stelle |
|
|
111 |
|
|
0 |
|
|
111 |
|
|
PD, +Europa, SVP-PATT, Civica Popolare, Italia Europa
Insieme |
|
|
58 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
60 |
|
|
Partito Democratico |
|
|
51 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
53 |
|
|
SVP - PATT |
|
|
3 |
|
|
- |
|
|
3 |
|
|
+Europa |
|
|
1 |
|
|
0 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
Italia Europa Insieme |
|
|
1 |
|
|
- |
|
|
1 |
|
|
Civica Popolare |
|
|
1 |
|
|
0 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
Union Valdôtaine |
|
|
1 |
|
|
- |
|
|
1 |
|
|
Liberi e Uguali |
|
|
4 |
|
|
0 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
Movimento Associativo Italiani all'Estero |
|
|
- |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
Unione Sudamericana Emigrati Italiani |
|
|
- |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
308 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
314 |
|
|
Finally, it should be noted that the Senate currently has six lifetime members, bringing its total membership to 320; a list seat allocated to the Five Star Movement in Sicily remains vacant because the party ran out of candidates in that region.
|
posted by Manuel Álvarez-Rivera : 06/05/2018 19:36 | permanent link |
|
United States 2016 House of Representatives Election Results
|
Federal and state-level results of the November 8, 2016 U.S. House of Representatives election, aggregated from figures published by the Federal Election Commission, are presented in the following table:
|
State |
|
Democratic |
|
Republican |
|
Other |
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
Votes |
% |
Seats |
% |
Votes |
% |
Seats |
% |
Votes |
% |
Seats |
% |
Votes |
Seats |
|
|
Alabama |
|
621,911 |
32.9 |
1 |
14.3 |
|
1,222,018 |
64.7 |
6 |
85.7 |
|
45,756 |
2.4 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
1,889,685 |
7 |
|
|
Alaska |
|
111,019 |
36.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
155,088 |
50.3 |
1 |
100.0 |
|
42,091 |
13.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
308,198 |
1 |
|
|
Arizona |
|
1,034,687 |
42.9 |
4 |
44.4 |
|
1,264,378 |
52.4 |
5 |
55.6 |
|
112,999 |
4.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
2,412,064 |
9 |
|
|
Arkansas |
|
111,347 |
10.4 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
760,415 |
71.2 |
4 |
100.0 |
|
196,815 |
18.4 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
1,068,577 |
4 |
|
|
California |
|
8,624,432 |
64.3 |
39 |
73.6 |
|
4,682,033 |
34.9 |
14 |
26.4 |
|
107,553 |
0.8 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
13,414,018 |
53 |
|
|
Colorado |
|
1,263,791 |
46.8 |
3 |
42.9 |
|
1,288,618 |
47.7 |
4 |
57.1 |
|
149,152 |
5.5 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
2,701,561 |
7 |
|
|
Connecticut |
|
990,139 |
62.9 |
5 |
100.0 |
|
568,134 |
36.1 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
16,910 |
1.1 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
1,575,183 |
5 |
|
|
Delaware |
|
233,554 |
55.5 |
1 |
100.0 |
|
172,301 |
41.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
14,785 |
3.5 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
420,640 |
1 |
|
|
Florida |
|
3,985,050 |
45.1 |
11 |
40.7 |
|
4,733,630 |
53.6 |
16 |
59.3 |
|
118,746 |
1.3 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
8,837,426 |
27 |
|
|
Georgia |
|
1,498,437 |
39.7 |
4 |
28.6 |
|
2,272,460 |
60.2 |
10 |
71.4 |
|
1,965 |
0.1 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
3,772,862 |
14 |
|
|
Hawaii |
|
316,265 |
76.6 |
2 |
100.0 |
|
85,626 |
20.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
10,982 |
2.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
412,873 |
2 |
|
|
Idaho |
|
208,992 |
30.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
447,544 |
65.7 |
2 |
100.0 |
|
25,058 |
3.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
681,594 |
2 |
|
|
Illinois |
|
2,810,536 |
53.6 |
11 |
61.1 |
|
2,397,436 |
45.7 |
7 |
38.9 |
|
33,795 |
0.6 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
5,241,767 |
18 |
|
|
Indiana |
|
1,052,901 |
39.6 |
2 |
22.2 |
|
1,442,989 |
54.3 |
7 |
77.8 |
|
162,477 |
6.1 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
2,658,367 |
9 |
|
|
Iowa |
|
673,969 |
44.5 |
1 |
25.0 |
|
813,153 |
53.7 |
3 |
75.0 |
|
28,433 |
1.9 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
1,515,555 |
4 |
|
|
Kansas |
|
317,635 |
27.1 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
694,240 |
59.1 |
4 |
100.0 |
|
161,861 |
13.8 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
1,173,736 |
4 |
|
|
Kentucky |
|
516,904 |
29.3 |
1 |
16.7 |
|
1,248,140 |
70.7 |
5 |
83.3 |
|
332 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
1,765,376 |
6 |
|
|
Louisiana |
|
564,064 |
31.3 |
1 |
16.7 |
|
1,198,764 |
66.4 |
5 |
83.3 |
|
41,428 |
2.3 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
1,804,256 |
6 |
|
|
Maine |
|
386,627 |
51.9 |
1 |
50.0 |
|
357,447 |
48.0 |
1 |
50.0 |
|
500 |
0.1 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
744,574 |
2 |
|
|
Maryland |
|
1,636,200 |
60.4 |
7 |
87.5 |
|
962,088 |
35.5 |
1 |
12.5 |
|
109,457 |
4.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
2,707,745 |
8 |
|
|
Massachusetts |
|
2,344,518 |
79.7 |
9 |
100.0 |
|
451,121 |
15.3 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
145,049 |
4.9 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
2,940,688 |
9 |
|
|
Michigan |
|
2,193,980 |
47.0 |
5 |
35.7 |
|
2,243,402 |
48.0 |
9 |
64.3 |
|
233,523 |
5.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
4,670,905 |
14 |
|
|
Minnesota |
|
1,434,590 |
50.2 |
5 |
62.5 |
|
1,334,686 |
46.7 |
3 |
37.5 |
|
91,156 |
3.2 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
2,860,432 |
8 |
|
|
Mississippi |
|
449,896 |
38.1 |
1 |
25.0 |
|
680,810 |
57.6 |
3 |
75.0 |
|
51,567 |
4.4 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
1,182,273 |
4 |
|
|
Missouri |
|
1,041,306 |
37.9 |
2 |
25.0 |
|
1,600,524 |
58.2 |
6 |
75.0 |
|
108,249 |
3.9 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
2,750,079 |
8 |
|
|
Montana |
|
205,919 |
40.5 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
285,358 |
56.2 |
1 |
100.0 |
|
16,554 |
3.3 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
507,831 |
1 |
|
|
Nebraska |
|
221,069 |
28.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
557,557 |
70.7 |
3 |
100.0 |
|
9,640 |
1.2 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
788,266 |
3 |
|
|
Nevada |
|
508,113 |
47.1 |
3 |
75.0 |
|
498,104 |
46.2 |
1 |
25.0 |
|
72,280 |
6.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
1,078,497 |
4 |
|
|
New Hampshire |
|
336,575 |
47.0 |
2 |
100.0 |
|
316,149 |
44.1 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
64,053 |
8.9 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
716,777 |
2 |
|
|
New Jersey |
|
1,821,620 |
52.6 |
7 |
58.3 |
|
1,541,631 |
44.5 |
5 |
41.7 |
|
100,060 |
2.9 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
3,463,311 |
12 |
|
|
New Mexico |
|
436,932 |
56.0 |
2 |
66.7 |
|
343,124 |
44.0 |
1 |
33.3 |
|
70 |
0.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
780,126 |
3 |
|
|
New York |
|
4,464,931 |
62.7 |
18 |
66.7 |
|
2,530,440 |
35.6 |
9 |
33.3 |
|
121,051 |
1.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
7,116,422 |
27 |
|
|
North Carolina |
|
2,142,661 |
46.6 |
3 |
23.1 |
|
2,447,326 |
53.2 |
10 |
76.9 |
|
8,471 |
0.2 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
4,598,458 |
13 |
|
|
North Dakota |
|
80,377 |
23.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
233,980 |
69.1 |
1 |
100.0 |
|
24,102 |
7.1 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
338,459 |
1 |
|
|
Ohio |
|
2,154,523 |
41.3 |
4 |
25.0 |
|
2,996,017 |
57.4 |
12 |
75.0 |
|
67,815 |
1.3 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
5,218,355 |
16 |
|
|
Oklahoma |
|
305,222 |
26.9 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
781,691 |
69.0 |
5 |
100.0 |
|
46,331 |
4.1 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
1,133,244 |
5 |
|
|
Oregon |
|
1,026,851 |
53.7 |
4 |
80.0 |
|
809,048 |
42.3 |
1 |
20.0 |
|
75,966 |
4.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
1,911,865 |
5 |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
|
2,625,157 |
45.6 |
5 |
27.8 |
|
3,096,576 |
53.7 |
13 |
72.2 |
|
40,819 |
0.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
5,762,552 |
18 |
|
|
Rhode Island |
|
263,648 |
61.1 |
2 |
100.0 |
|
141,324 |
32.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
26,553 |
6.2 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
431,525 |
2 |
|
|
South Carolina |
|
800,801 |
39.3 |
1 |
14.3 |
|
1,193,711 |
58.5 |
6 |
85.7 |
|
44,950 |
2.2 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
2,039,462 |
7 |
|
|
South Dakota |
|
132,810 |
35.9 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
237,163 |
64.1 |
1 |
100.0 |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
369,973 |
1 |
|
|
Tennessee |
|
814,181 |
34.1 |
2 |
22.2 |
|
1,493,740 |
62.5 |
7 |
77.8 |
|
83,140 |
3.5 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
2,391,061 |
9 |
|
|
Texas |
|
3,160,535 |
37.1 |
11 |
30.6 |
|
4,877,605 |
57.2 |
25 |
69.4 |
|
490,386 |
5.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
8,528,526 |
36 |
|
|
Utah |
|
356,290 |
32.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
710,656 |
63.8 |
4 |
100.0 |
|
47,224 |
4.2 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
1,114,170 |
4 |
|
|
Vermont |
|
264,414 |
89.5 |
1 |
100.0 |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
30,920 |
10.5 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
295,334 |
1 |
|
|
Virginia |
|
1,859,426 |
49.2 |
4 |
36.4 |
|
1,843,010 |
48.7 |
7 |
63.6 |
|
79,812 |
2.1 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
3,782,248 |
11 |
|
|
Washington |
|
1,736,145 |
55.3 |
6 |
60.0 |
|
1,404,890 |
44.7 |
4 |
40.0 |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
3,141,035 |
10 |
|
|
West Virginia |
|
224,449 |
32.7 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
445,017 |
64.8 |
3 |
100.0 |
|
16,883 |
2.5 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
686,349 |
3 |
|
|
Wisconsin |
|
1,379,996 |
49.8 |
3 |
37.5 |
|
1,270,279 |
45.8 |
5 |
62.5 |
|
123,387 |
4.4 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
2,773,662 |
8 |
|
|
Wyoming |
|
75,466 |
30.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
156,176 |
62.0 |
1 |
100.0 |
|
20,134 |
8.0 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
251,776 |
1 |
|
|
|
U.S. Total |
|
61,820,861 |
48.0 |
194 |
44.6 |
|
63,287,617 |
49.2 |
241 |
55.4 |
|
3,621,240 |
2.8 |
0 |
0.0 |
|
128,729,718 |
435 |
|
|
|
posted by Manuel Álvarez-Rivera : 06/05/2018 15:14 | permanent link |
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