|
|
Sat, Sep 28, 2013
|
One week after Bundestag election, Germany inches towards a grand coalition government
|
The leaders of Germany's main opposition party, the center-left Social Democratic
Party (SPD) agreed yesterday to begin talks on forming a coalition government with
Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling right-of-center Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU). However, any agreement
between the Union parties and the Social Democrats will have to be approved by SPD's
472,000 members in a binding vote.
In last Sunday's election to the Bundestag - the lower chamber of Germany's bicameral
Parliament - CDU/CSU won a clear victory over SPD, which scored minor gains but still
polled its second-worst result in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany.
However, CDU/CSU's coalition partner, the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) fell
just below the five percent threshold needed to secure parliamentary representation,
and lost all its seats in the Bundestag for the first time ever; in turn, this left
Chancellor Merkel without an overall legislative majority. While the exclusion of
both FDP and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) - a new Euro-sceptic party that polled
strongly, but also fell short of the five percent hurdle - allowed the country's
three main left-wing parties - SPD, the environmentalist Greens and the post-Communist
Left - to win a small combined majority in the Bundestag, SPD leaders have repeatedly
made it clear they will not join forces with The Left, which remains widely reviled
in western Germany as the successor of East Germany's defunct Communist Party.
Nevertheless, the Social Democrats had been reluctant to join CDU/CSU in a coalition
government, not least because the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats -
Germany's two major parties since 1949 - have been traditional adversaries. Just as
important, Merkel's successive coalition partners - SPD itself in 2005-2009 and FDP
from 2009 to 2013 - went on to suffer heavy losses at the polls, and many SPD members
fear history could repeat itself if the party agrees once more to form a coalition
government with Merkel. However, at this juncture the only other alternatives would
be a coalition between the Union parties and the Greens - generally regarded as
highly unlikely - or a minority CDU/CSU government, which Merkel has already ruled
out. Moreover, post-election polls indicate a large majority of German voters want
the Chancellor to form a coalition government with the Social Democrats.
Although both the Greens and The Left lost ground in last Sunday's election, the
latter became Germany's third largest party for the first time ever. However, differences
in voting patterns persist on both sides of the now-defunct Iron Curtain, twenty-three
years after reunification: while The Left finished a poor fifth in the "old Länder"
of the former West Germany, it remains the second largest party in the "new Länder"
of the former German Democratic Republic. On the other hand, FDP managed to finish just above the five percent threshold in western Germany, but the party's
disastrous result in eastern Germany dragged its share of the vote below the critical
hurdle. That said, CDU topped the poll in every Länder it ran except Hamburg and
Bremen (both carried by SPD), while CSU swept in Bavaria.
Elections to the German Bundestag has detailed results of every
Bundestag election since 1949, including last Sunday's vote, which was held under
a reformed electoral
system intended to guarantee a fully proportional distribution of Bundestag seats
among qualifying parties. Ironically, the exclusion of FDP, AfD and a host of smaller
parties - most notably among them the digital privacy/rights-oriented Pirate Party,
which scored modest gains compared to its previous showing four years ago - led
to an unusually disproportionate election outcome, as a record 15.7% of the votes
cast for party lists were "wasted" on parties that failed to make it to the Bundestag.
|
posted by Manuel Álvarez-Rivera : 09/28/2013 18:03 | permanent link |
|
Sun, Sep 22, 2013
|
Germany's ruling coalition could lose majority - exit polls (updated)
|
Exit polls from German broadcasters ARD and ZDF suggest that Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling CDU/CSU-FDP coalition could lose its Bundestag majority in today's federal election.
While both the ARD and ZDF exit polls place Merkel's CDU and CSU - the CDU's counterpart in Bavaria - sixteen percentage points ahead of SPD, the main opposition party, both polls have the liberal FDP falling just short of the five percent threshold needed to secure Bundestag representation. Moreover, CDU/CSU alone would fall short of an overall parliamentary majority, with SPD, the Left Party and the environmentalist Greens attaining a slender joint lead over the Union parties.
Meanwhile, the Euro-sceptic Alternative for Germany (AfD), while polling strongly for a new party, would also fall short of the five percent threshold, although just barely.
Update
ARD and ZDF have both made small adjustments to their forecasts, which point to a very small CDU/CSU absolute majority over the left-wing parties. However, AfD is now just one-tenth of a point below the five percent threshold in both exit poll forecasts; if it were to cross the threshold, CDU/CSU would then end up well short of a Bundestag majority.
Update-on-the-update
The Federal Returning Officer is now publishing live 2013 Bundestag election results in German and English. Meanwhile, exit poll numbers have been dancing back and forth on the prospect of a CDU/CSU absolute majority in the Bundestag.
I'm also commenting on today's vote in Germany over at the Fruits and Votes blog.
Elections to the German Bundestag now has detailed federal- and state-level preliminary results of today's vote in Germany.
|
posted by Manuel Álvarez-Rivera : 09/22/2013 20:47 | permanent link |
|
Sun, Sep 15, 2013
|
Germany's Reformed Electoral System
|
As noted in Elections to the German Bundestag, this year's
parliamentary election in Germany will be held under a reformed electoral
system that introduces adjustment seats, in order to guarantee a fully
proportional allocation of Bundestag seats among qualifying parties.
While the recently enacted reform does not change the basic functioning of
Germany's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system (described
here), it introduces a new, two-tier mechanism
for the nationwide distribution of Bundestag mandates. In the first stage,
a non-binding allocation of seats among qualifying parties is carried out
in each one of Germany's sixteen Länder by the Sainte-Laguë/Schepers
method of PR. However, if a party secures more constituency seats in the
first vote of a particular Land than the number of seats it would be entitled
to according to the result of the second vote, it keeps the extra seats at
this stage.
(Under Sainte-Laguë/Schepers, the distribution of seats is obtained
by dividing party votes by a divisor or quota, such that the sum of party
seats - the resulting quotients, with fractions greater than 0.5 rounded
up to the next whole number - will be equal to the total number of seats
to be filled.)
Had the new mechanism been in place for the 2009 Bundestag election, and
had voters cast their ballots in the same manner, the initial allocation
of seats would have stood as follows:
|
Land |
|
|
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SPD |
|
|
CDU |
|
|
CSU |
|
|
GRÜNE |
|
|
FDP |
|
|
DIE
LINKE |
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
Schleswig-Holstein |
|
|
6 |
|
|
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
24 |
|
|
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern |
|
|
3 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
15 |
|
|
Hamburg |
|
|
3 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
12 |
|
|
Niedersachsen |
|
|
19 |
|
|
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
|
|
8 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
60 |
|
|
Bremen |
|
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
Brandenburg |
|
|
6 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
20 |
|
|
Sachsen-Anhalt |
|
|
3 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
18 |
|
|
Berlin |
|
|
5 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
24 |
|
|
Nordrhein-Westfalen |
|
|
38 |
|
|
45 |
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
|
|
20 |
|
|
11 |
|
|
128 |
|
|
Sachsen |
|
|
5 |
|
|
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
8 |
|
|
36 |
|
|
Hessen |
|
|
12 |
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
7 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
43 |
|
|
Thüringen |
|
|
3 |
|
|
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
19 |
|
|
Rheinland-Pfalz |
|
|
8 |
|
|
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
32 |
|
|
Bayern |
|
|
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
45 |
|
|
11 |
|
|
14 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
93 |
|
|
Baden-Württemberg |
|
|
16 |
|
|
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
15 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
85 |
|
|
Saarland |
|
|
2 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
148 |
|
|
195 |
|
|
45 |
|
|
69 |
|
|
91 |
|
|
76 |
|
|
624 |
|
|
The total number of seats won by each one of the six qualifying parties is
the minimum number of mandates the party would be entitled to receive at
the federal level. The number of second votes won by each qualifying party
would then be divided by its corresponding seat total from the preceding
allocation, minus 0.5:
|
SPD: |
|
9,990,488
147.5 |
= |
67,732 |
|
CDU: |
|
11,828,277
194.5 |
= |
60,813 |
|
|
|
CSU: |
|
2,830,238
44.5 |
= |
63,600 |
|
GRÜNE: |
|
4,643,272
68.5 |
= |
67,784 |
|
FDP: |
|
6,316,080
90.5 |
= |
69,790 |
|
DIE LINKE: |
|
5,155,933
75.5 |
= |
68,290 |
The votes-to-seats minus 0.5 quotients show a significant deviation from
full proportionality - with quotients ranging from a low of 60,813 for CDU
to a high of 69,790 for FDP - largely due to the allocation of twenty-six
overhang mandates (22 CDU, 3 CSU and one SPD). The distribution of seats
on a Land-by-Land basis would have also introduced a distorting
effect, but it would have been comparatively minuscule: had overhang seats
been disregarded at this stage, the quotients would have fluctuated between
67,784 and 69,790.
At any rate, in the second stage the number of second votes polled by each
one of the qualifying parties would have been divided by the smallest of
the aforementioned quotients, with remainders larger than 0.5 rounded up
to the next whole number, to obtain the definitive nationwide distribution
of Bundestag seats:
|
SPD: |
|
9,990,488
60,813 |
= |
164.2821107 |
= |
164 seats |
|
CDU: |
|
11,828,277
60,813 |
= |
194.5024419 |
= |
195 seats |
|
CSU: |
|
2,830,238
60,813 |
= |
46.5400161 |
= |
47 seats |
|
GRÜNE: |
|
4,643,272
60,813 |
= |
76.3532797 |
= |
76 seats |
|
FDP: |
|
6,316,080
60,813 |
= |
103.8606877 |
= |
104 seats |
|
DIE LINKE: |
|
5,155,933
60,813 |
= |
84.7834016 |
= |
85 seats |
This would conclude the allocation of seats at the federal level, and the
mandates obtained by each party would then be distributed among its
Land lists; the results of the initial Land-level allocation
of seats would be discarded at this point.
Under the previous electoral system, party mandates were proportionally allocated
among its Land lists, but if a Land list received fewer seats
than its corresponding number of direct mandates, it kept the overhang seats,
and the size of the Bundestag was increased accordingly. However, under the
new electoral system, the allocation of Bundestag seats at the federal level
is definitive and cannot be altered by the distribution of party mandates
at the Land level. As such, in the event one or more party Land
lists receive fewer seats than the corresponding number of constituency seats
won by the party, the allocation divisor would be increased until each one
of the party's Land lists received a number of seats equal to the
larger of its rounded quotient, or its corresponding number of direct mandates.
Nonetheless, in most cases all the Land lists of a given party secure
a proportional allocation larger than or equal to their corresponding number
of constituency seats, and in such instances the system remains essentially
unchanged from past Bundestag elections, the main difference being the actual
PR method used for the distribution of seats (d'Hondt from 1957 to 1983,
Hare/Niemeyer from 1987 to 2005, Sainte-Laguë/Schepers since 2009).
For example, the Land-level allocation of SPD mandates according to
the Sainte-Laguë/Schepers method would have produced the following results
(with a divisor of 60,541):
|
Land |
|
Votes |
|
Quotient |
|
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
Direct |
|
List |
|
|
|
Schleswig-Holstein |
|
430,739 |
|
7.114831 |
|
7 |
|
2 |
|
5 |
|
|
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern |
|
143,607 |
|
2.372062 |
|
2 |
|
0 |
|
2 |
|
|
Hamburg |
|
242,942 |
|
4.012851 |
|
4 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
Niedersachsen |
|
1,297,940 |
|
21.439025 |
|
21 |
|
14 |
|
7 |
|
|
Bremen |
|
102,419 |
|
1.691730 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
0 |
|
|
Brandenburg |
|
348,216 |
|
5.751738 |
|
6 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
|
Sachsen-Anhalt |
|
202,850 |
|
3.350622 |
|
3 |
|
0 |
|
3 |
|
|
Berlin |
|
348,082 |
|
5.749525 |
|
6 |
|
2 |
|
4 |
|
|
Nordrhein-Westfalen |
|
2,678,956 |
|
44.250277 |
|
44 |
|
27 |
|
17 |
|
|
Sachsen |
|
328,753 |
|
5.430254 |
|
5 |
|
0 |
|
5 |
|
|
Hessen |
|
812,721 |
|
13.424307 |
|
13 |
|
6 |
|
7 |
|
|
Thüringen |
|
216,593 |
|
3.577625 |
|
4 |
|
0 |
|
4 |
|
|
Rheinland-Pfalz |
|
520,990 |
|
8.605573 |
|
9 |
|
2 |
|
7 |
|
|
Bayern |
|
1,120,018 |
|
18.500157 |
|
19 |
|
0 |
|
19 |
|
|
Baden-Württemberg |
|
1,051,198 |
|
17.363407 |
|
17 |
|
1 |
|
16 |
|
|
Saarland |
|
144,464 |
|
2.386218 |
|
2 |
|
0 |
|
2 |
|
|
As in past elections, any direct mandates won by a party in a particular
Land would be deducted from its proportional seat allocation. Thus,
the 27 constituency seats won by SPD in Nordrhein-Westfalen would be subtracted
from its proportional allocation of 44 seats, and the party would be awarded
seventeen list seats in that Land.
However, in the case of CDU the number of constituency seats won by the party
would exceed its Land list seat allocation in several
Länder, which would require the allocation divisor to be increased
from 60,658 to 68,400, with the following results:
|
Land |
|
Votes |
|
Quotient |
|
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
Direct |
|
List |
|
|
|
Schleswig-Holstein |
|
518,457 |
|
7.579781 |
|
9 |
|
9 |
|
0 |
|
|
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern |
|
287,481 |
|
4.202939 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
0 |
|
|
Hamburg |
|
246,667 |
|
3.606243 |
|
4 |
|
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
Niedersachsen |
|
1,471,530 |
|
21.513596 |
|
22 |
|
16 |
|
6 |
|
|
Bremen |
|
80,964 |
|
1.183684 |
|
1 |
|
0 |
|
1 |
|
|
Brandenburg |
|
327,454 |
|
4.787339 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
4 |
|
|
Sachsen-Anhalt |
|
362,311 |
|
5.296944 |
|
5 |
|
4 |
|
1 |
|
|
Berlin |
|
393,180 |
|
5.748246 |
|
6 |
|
5 |
|
1 |
|
|
Nordrhein-Westfalen |
|
3,111,478 |
|
45.489444 |
|
45 |
|
37 |
|
8 |
|
|
Sachsen |
|
800,898 |
|
11.709035 |
|
16 |
|
16 |
|
0 |
|
|
Hessen |
|
1,022,822 |
|
14.953538 |
|
15 |
|
15 |
|
0 |
|
|
Thüringen |
|
383,778 |
|
5.610789 |
|
7 |
|
7 |
|
0 |
|
|
Rheinland-Pfalz |
|
767,487 |
|
11.220570 |
|
13 |
|
13 |
|
0 |
|
|
Baden-Württemberg |
|
1,874,481 |
|
27.404693 |
|
37 |
|
37 |
|
0 |
|
|
Saarland |
|
179,289 |
|
2.621184 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
0 |
|
|
Thus, party Land lists still retain their corresponding overhang mandates
(if any), but now these will be proportionally deducted from the party's
lists in the remaining Länder.
The final distribution of seats in the 2009 Bundestag election would have
then stood as follows:
|
Land |
|
|
Seats |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SPD |
|
|
CDU |
|
|
CSU |
|
|
GRÜNE |
|
|
FDP |
|
|
DIE
LINKE |
|
|
Total |
|
|
|
Schleswig-Holstein |
|
|
7 |
|
|
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
25 |
|
|
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern |
|
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
14 |
|
|
Hamburg |
|
|
4 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
14 |
|
|
Niedersachsen |
|
|
21 |
|
|
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
10 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
67 |
|
|
Bremen |
|
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
Brandenburg |
|
|
6 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
7 |
|
|
21 |
|
|
Sachsen-Anhalt |
|
|
3 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
17 |
|
|
Berlin |
|
|
6 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
26 |
|
|
Nordrhein-Westfalen |
|
|
44 |
|
|
45 |
|
|
|
|
|
16 |
|
|
23 |
|
|
13 |
|
|
141 |
|
|
Sachsen |
|
|
5 |
|
|
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
9 |
|
|
37 |
|
|
Hessen |
|
|
13 |
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
9 |
|
|
5 |
|
|
48 |
|
|
Thüringen |
|
|
4 |
|
|
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
20 |
|
|
Rheinland-Pfalz |
|
|
9 |
|
|
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
35 |
|
|
Bayern |
|
|
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
47 |
|
|
12 |
|
|
16 |
|
|
7 |
|
|
101 |
|
|
Baden-Württemberg |
|
|
17 |
|
|
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
|
17 |
|
|
6 |
|
|
89 |
|
|
Saarland |
|
|
2 |
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
164 |
|
|
195 |
|
|
47 |
|
|
76 |
|
|
104 |
|
|
85 |
|
|
671 |
|
|
While the new electoral system would have increased the size of the Bundestag
by 49 seats, to a total of 671, it would not have substantially changed the
outcome of the 2009 Bundestag election: incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel
would still have been able to form a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition government, albeit
with a parliamentary majority cut in half (from 332-290 to 346-325) when
compared to the actual election
outcome.
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posted by Manuel Álvarez-Rivera : 09/15/2013 19:34 | permanent link |
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