 Exit polls from German broadcasters ARD and ZDF suggest that Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling CDU/CSU-FDP coalition could lose its Bundestag majority in today's federal election.
While both the ARD and ZDF exit polls place Merkel's CDU and CSU - the CDU's counterpart in Bavaria - sixteen percentage points ahead of SPD, the main opposition party, both polls have the liberal FDP falling just short of the five percent threshold needed to secure Bundestag representation. Moreover, CDU/CSU alone would fall short of an overall parliamentary majority, with SPD, the Left Party and the environmentalist Greens attaining a slender joint lead over the Union parties.
Meanwhile, the Euro-sceptic Alternative for Germany (AfD), while polling strongly for a new party, would also fall short of the five percent threshold, although just barely.
Update
ARD and ZDF have both made small adjustments to their forecasts, which point to a very small CDU/CSU absolute majority over the left-wing parties. However, AfD is now just one-tenth of a point below the five percent threshold in both exit poll forecasts; if it were to cross the threshold, CDU/CSU would then end up well short of a Bundestag majority.
Update-on-the-update
The Federal Returning Officer is now publishing live 2013 Bundestag election results in German and English. Meanwhile, exit poll numbers have been dancing back and forth on the prospect of a CDU/CSU absolute majority in the Bundestag.
I'm also commenting on today's vote in Germany over at the Fruits and Votes blog.
Elections to the German Bundestag now has detailed federal- and state-level preliminary results of today's vote in Germany.
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