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In yesterday's Catalan Parliament election, two
pro-independence tickets attained a majority of seats - 72 of 135 - over
four "constitutional" groups opposed to the autonomous community's secession
from Spain. However, the combined vote total for the latter - 1,972,057,
or 48.1% of valid votes - was slightly larger than the total amount polled
by the former (1,957,348, or 47.7% of the vote).
As it shall be shown below, this peculiar behavior of the electoral system
stems from a combination of two factors, namely disparities between population
figures and allocation of seats among the provinces; and the application
of the D'Hondt rule to apportion seats in each province among party tickets.
The allocation of parliamentary seats among the four Catalan provinces -
unchanged since 1979 - clearly favors the three least-populated provinces
at the expense of Barcelona, the region's most populated province. In fact,
the distribution of seats among the provinces according to 2011 Census figures
would be as follows:
| |
Province |
|
|
Seats |
|
|
| |
Barcelona |
|
|
99 |
|
| |
Girona (Gerona) |
|
|
14 |
|
| |
Lleida (Lérida) |
|
|
8 |
|
| |
Tarragona |
|
|
14 |
|
|
| |
Total |
|
|
135 |
|
|
As such, Barcelona would receive fourteen additional seats, while Girona
would lose three, Lleida seven, and Tarragona four.
However, the reapportionment of seats among the provinces would have had
little impact in the distribution of mandates among party tickets, which
would have stood as follows:
| |
Ticket |
|
|
Seats |
|
|
| |
JxSí |
|
|
60 |
|
| |
C's |
|
|
26 |
|
| |
PSC-PSOE |
|
|
17 |
|
| |
CatSíqueesPot |
|
|
11 |
|
| |
PP |
|
|
11 |
|
| |
CUP |
|
|
10 |
|
|
| |
Total |
|
|
135 |
|
|
Compared to the actual outcome, JxSí would have lost just two seats,
while C's and PSC-PSOE would have picked a seat apiece. Meanwhile, the separatist
groups (JxSí and CUP) would still have a five seat (70-65) majority.
Now, if in addition the allocation of mandates were to be carried out in
each province using the Sainte-Lagüe method (which operates in a manner
similar to the D'Hondt rule but uses instead the series of divisors 1, 3,
5, and so on), the result would be as follows:
| |
Ticket |
|
|
Seats |
|
|
| |
JxSí |
|
|
55 |
|
| |
C's |
|
|
26 |
|
| |
PSC-PSOE |
|
|
18 |
|
| |
CatSíqueesPot |
|
|
12 |
|
| |
PP |
|
|
12 |
|
| |
CUP |
|
|
12 |
|
|
| |
Total |
|
|
135 |
|
|
In this case, JxSí would lose seven seats, while C's, CatSíqueesPot
and PP would gain one each, and PSC-PSOE and CUP would gain two apiece. Moreover,
JxSí and CUP would be one seat short of an overall majority.
The reason why pro-independence groups attained a majority of seats on the
basis of a minority of votes was due to the fact that in the three smaller
provinces JxSí obtained sixty percent of the seats (30 out of 50)
with fifty percent of the vote. In turn, this was due to the fact that the
D'Hondt rule favors the larger parties and especially the winner, particularly
as the constituency size becomes smaller. As such, the reapportionment of
seats among provinces would have had little effect by itself in the allocation
of seats among party tickets. On the other hand, the additional introduction
of the Sainte-Lagüe method would have resulted in a much more equitable
distribution of seats in the three smaller provinces, which would have been
far less favorable to JxSí.
The irony of all this is that despite their disdain for Spain, pro-independence
groups owe their majority in the Catalan Parliament to a Spanish law, as
Catalonia has no electoral law of its own.
|