Sunday, June 01, 2008
Puerto Rico's 2008 Democratic presidential primary
(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)
Puerto Rico, a U.S. Commonwealth, will hold a Democratic Party presidential primary on Sunday, June 1st, 2008. The upcoming primary is the Democrats' first election event in the Caribbean island since 1995, when a primary was held for the position of local party chairman. Puerto Ricans are citizens of the United States, but U.S. citizens residing in Puerto Rico don’t vote in presidential elections, and don’t pay federal income taxes on income from sources in Puerto Rico (but pay Social Security and Medicare taxes).
Primary results are available at the bottom of this posting, under Update.
Although the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties hold presidential primaries in Puerto Rico, they don’t take part in the island’s general elections. Puerto Rican politics revolve around the status issue, that is the island’s political relationship with the U.S., and Puerto Rico has two major parties: the Popular Democratic Party (PPD), which favors retention of Commonwealth status, and the New Progressive Party (PNP), which promotes U.S. statehood. There are also two minor parties: the Puerto Rican Independence Party (PIP), which advocates the establishment of a sovereign republic, and Puerto Ricans for Puerto Rico (PPR), a recently-created, environmentalist-oriented party that doesn't take sides on the status issue.
There is a general consensus that Senator Hillary Clinton will prevail over Senator Barack Obama, but there has been much speculation regarding the voter turnout rate in the primary. As such, a brief overview of turnout in Puerto Rico election events is presented here, followed by an estimate of voter turnout in Sunday’s primary.
Puerto Rico has usually had a much higher turnout in general elections than the U.S. proper. For example, the island’s 2000 and 2004 general elections had turnout rates of 82.4% and 81.7% of registered voters, respectively. While these figures drop to 74.2% and 70% when turnout is calculated on the basis of the voting age population, they remain substantially higher than the voting age population turnout rates for the 2000 and 2004 U.S. presidential elections, which stood at 51.2% and 56.7%, respectively. Likewise, the 1993 and 1998 status plebiscites also had relatively high turnout rates: 73.5% and 71.3% of registered voters, respectively.
However, turnout for other election events held in Puerto Rico has been smaller than in general elections and status plebiscites. The 2003 and 2008 PPD and PNP local primaries had combined turnout rates of 37.6% and 44.4% of registered voters, while the 2005 unicameralism referendum had a turnout of only 22.6% of registered voters.
As for the Democratic primaries previously held in Puerto Rico, the highest turnout to date was registered in the 1980 presidential primary, in which nearly fifty percent of the electorate turned out to vote: it’s not possible to provide an accurate figure due to problems with the electoral registry at the time, but the total number of voters in the primary was 886,280. However, it should be noted that primary set a pattern that would repeat itself in some subsequent Democratic events (but not in 2008): the Popular Democrats and the New Progressives lined up behind opposing candidates - the former supported Sen. Ted Kennedy, the latter then-President Jimmy Carter - and the primary became a general election dress rehearsal; Carter won, and the two parties had results nearly identical to those of the 1976 general election.
The other two Democratic events that have attracted a substantial turnout were the 1988 primaries (for both presidential preference and local party chairman), and the aforementioned 1995 primary. In both occasions, turnout was relatively high for a primary – about one-third of the electorate – because the party chairman primary became once more a general election dress rehearsal, in which the Popular Democrats and the New Progressives backed their respective candidates; in both cases, the Popular Democratic Party candidates - Miguel Hernández-Agosto in 1988 and Celeste Benítez in 1995 – prevailed over Carlos Romero-Barceló, backed by the New Progressive Party. The 1988 primary had a turnout of 671,358 voters, while 722,371 voters took part in the 1995 primary; the latter figure increases to 738,064 if blank, unadjudicated and provisional ballots are included in the total. However, in the 1988 presidential preference primary, which was a "beauty contest" essentially overlooked by Puerto Rico’s two major parties - uncommitted delegates were chosen along with the party chairman – there were only 314,146 voters…and to everyone’s surprise, Jesse Jackson won with thirty-two percent of the vote.
In any event, this result showed that turnout in presidential primary processes depends upon mobilization of the electorate by Puerto Rico’s political parties, especially when events become general election dress rehearsals. However, when that element has been missing, voter turnout has collapsed – as was in the case in 1988.
Something similar happened in the 2005 unicameralism referendum, which had the lowest turnout of any election event in Puerto Rico, other than primaries. Neither of the two major parties was fully committed behind either of the two ballot options - in truth, both parties would have preferred not to hold the referendum in the first place, but they couldn’t agree on whether to postpone or cancel it. Moreover, well before election day there were several developments that were indicative of voter apathy over the event. Specifically, there were problems with the recruitment of poll workers, and the number of absentee ballot requests was nearly insignificant.
The case of the 2005 referendum is illustrative, as it shares a number of parallels with the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. None of the two major parties is committed behind either presidential candidate (there are Popular Democrats and New Progressives behind both Hillary Clinton as well as Barack Obama), once again there have been problems with the recruitment of poll workers (which have made it necessary to reduce the number of polling places from 3,000 to 2,300), and the number of absentee ballot requests is almost identical to the 2005 figure – and just as insignificant.
That said, the visits to Puerto Rico by Sen. Obama and (especially) Sen. Clinton have generated considerable interest, which could influence voter turnout in the primary. Meanwhile, voter turnout estimates vary from a minimum of 200,000 to a maximum of over one million. When asked by the news media, I have estimated 600,000 voters, plus or minus 100,000, that is 500,000 to 700,000 voters. This would be about 25% of Puerto Rico’s 2,367,000 registered voters for the primary, plus or minus four percent, for a turnout rate along the lines of the 2005 referendum - which could nonetheless vary depending on the impact that may have the presidential candidates’ electoral campaign activities in Puerto Rico.
In fact, the Commonwealth Elections Commission, which usually prints a number of paper ballots equal to three times the number of voters that are expected to turn out in an election event, has printed about 1,800,000 ballots for the primary, which suggests the agency expects about 600,000 voters to take part in the event. Moreover, the chairman of the Commission has estimated he expects more than half a million voters to turn out. At any rate, tonight we will know if these estimates are accurate or not.
Update
2008 Democratic presidential primary results issued by the Commonwealth Elections Commission have confirmed findings from various exit polls, which had Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama by a wide margin.
With 100% of the vote tallied, Sen. Clinton has won 263,120 votes (68%) to Sen. Obama's 121,458 (32%). At just over 16%, voter turnout in the primary has been much smaller than anticipated.
Puerto Rico, a U.S. Commonwealth, will hold a Democratic Party presidential primary on Sunday, June 1st, 2008. The upcoming primary is the Democrats' first election event in the Caribbean island since 1995, when a primary was held for the position of local party chairman. Puerto Ricans are citizens of the United States, but U.S. citizens residing in Puerto Rico don’t vote in presidential elections, and don’t pay federal income taxes on income from sources in Puerto Rico (but pay Social Security and Medicare taxes).Primary results are available at the bottom of this posting, under Update.
Although the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties hold presidential primaries in Puerto Rico, they don’t take part in the island’s general elections. Puerto Rican politics revolve around the status issue, that is the island’s political relationship with the U.S., and Puerto Rico has two major parties: the Popular Democratic Party (PPD), which favors retention of Commonwealth status, and the New Progressive Party (PNP), which promotes U.S. statehood. There are also two minor parties: the Puerto Rican Independence Party (PIP), which advocates the establishment of a sovereign republic, and Puerto Ricans for Puerto Rico (PPR), a recently-created, environmentalist-oriented party that doesn't take sides on the status issue.
There is a general consensus that Senator Hillary Clinton will prevail over Senator Barack Obama, but there has been much speculation regarding the voter turnout rate in the primary. As such, a brief overview of turnout in Puerto Rico election events is presented here, followed by an estimate of voter turnout in Sunday’s primary.
Puerto Rico has usually had a much higher turnout in general elections than the U.S. proper. For example, the island’s 2000 and 2004 general elections had turnout rates of 82.4% and 81.7% of registered voters, respectively. While these figures drop to 74.2% and 70% when turnout is calculated on the basis of the voting age population, they remain substantially higher than the voting age population turnout rates for the 2000 and 2004 U.S. presidential elections, which stood at 51.2% and 56.7%, respectively. Likewise, the 1993 and 1998 status plebiscites also had relatively high turnout rates: 73.5% and 71.3% of registered voters, respectively.
However, turnout for other election events held in Puerto Rico has been smaller than in general elections and status plebiscites. The 2003 and 2008 PPD and PNP local primaries had combined turnout rates of 37.6% and 44.4% of registered voters, while the 2005 unicameralism referendum had a turnout of only 22.6% of registered voters.
As for the Democratic primaries previously held in Puerto Rico, the highest turnout to date was registered in the 1980 presidential primary, in which nearly fifty percent of the electorate turned out to vote: it’s not possible to provide an accurate figure due to problems with the electoral registry at the time, but the total number of voters in the primary was 886,280. However, it should be noted that primary set a pattern that would repeat itself in some subsequent Democratic events (but not in 2008): the Popular Democrats and the New Progressives lined up behind opposing candidates - the former supported Sen. Ted Kennedy, the latter then-President Jimmy Carter - and the primary became a general election dress rehearsal; Carter won, and the two parties had results nearly identical to those of the 1976 general election.
The other two Democratic events that have attracted a substantial turnout were the 1988 primaries (for both presidential preference and local party chairman), and the aforementioned 1995 primary. In both occasions, turnout was relatively high for a primary – about one-third of the electorate – because the party chairman primary became once more a general election dress rehearsal, in which the Popular Democrats and the New Progressives backed their respective candidates; in both cases, the Popular Democratic Party candidates - Miguel Hernández-Agosto in 1988 and Celeste Benítez in 1995 – prevailed over Carlos Romero-Barceló, backed by the New Progressive Party. The 1988 primary had a turnout of 671,358 voters, while 722,371 voters took part in the 1995 primary; the latter figure increases to 738,064 if blank, unadjudicated and provisional ballots are included in the total. However, in the 1988 presidential preference primary, which was a "beauty contest" essentially overlooked by Puerto Rico’s two major parties - uncommitted delegates were chosen along with the party chairman – there were only 314,146 voters…and to everyone’s surprise, Jesse Jackson won with thirty-two percent of the vote.
In any event, this result showed that turnout in presidential primary processes depends upon mobilization of the electorate by Puerto Rico’s political parties, especially when events become general election dress rehearsals. However, when that element has been missing, voter turnout has collapsed – as was in the case in 1988.
Something similar happened in the 2005 unicameralism referendum, which had the lowest turnout of any election event in Puerto Rico, other than primaries. Neither of the two major parties was fully committed behind either of the two ballot options - in truth, both parties would have preferred not to hold the referendum in the first place, but they couldn’t agree on whether to postpone or cancel it. Moreover, well before election day there were several developments that were indicative of voter apathy over the event. Specifically, there were problems with the recruitment of poll workers, and the number of absentee ballot requests was nearly insignificant.
The case of the 2005 referendum is illustrative, as it shares a number of parallels with the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. None of the two major parties is committed behind either presidential candidate (there are Popular Democrats and New Progressives behind both Hillary Clinton as well as Barack Obama), once again there have been problems with the recruitment of poll workers (which have made it necessary to reduce the number of polling places from 3,000 to 2,300), and the number of absentee ballot requests is almost identical to the 2005 figure – and just as insignificant.
That said, the visits to Puerto Rico by Sen. Obama and (especially) Sen. Clinton have generated considerable interest, which could influence voter turnout in the primary. Meanwhile, voter turnout estimates vary from a minimum of 200,000 to a maximum of over one million. When asked by the news media, I have estimated 600,000 voters, plus or minus 100,000, that is 500,000 to 700,000 voters. This would be about 25% of Puerto Rico’s 2,367,000 registered voters for the primary, plus or minus four percent, for a turnout rate along the lines of the 2005 referendum - which could nonetheless vary depending on the impact that may have the presidential candidates’ electoral campaign activities in Puerto Rico.
In fact, the Commonwealth Elections Commission, which usually prints a number of paper ballots equal to three times the number of voters that are expected to turn out in an election event, has printed about 1,800,000 ballots for the primary, which suggests the agency expects about 600,000 voters to take part in the event. Moreover, the chairman of the Commission has estimated he expects more than half a million voters to turn out. At any rate, tonight we will know if these estimates are accurate or not.
Update
2008 Democratic presidential primary results issued by the Commonwealth Elections Commission have confirmed findings from various exit polls, which had Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama by a wide margin.
With 100% of the vote tallied, Sen. Clinton has won 263,120 votes (68%) to Sen. Obama's 121,458 (32%). At just over 16%, voter turnout in the primary has been much smaller than anticipated.
