Electoral Panorama / Panorama Electoral

(This posting is also available in English.)

Me complace anunciar la publicación de la primera parte de Elecciones Presidenciales y Legislativas en Chile, que presenta los resultados de las elecciones generales celebradas en el país sudamericano a partir de 1989.

Por cierto, hoy se cumple el vigésimo aniversario del referéndum del 5 de octubre de 1988, en el cual el pueblo chileno rechazó la continuación del mandato presidencial del Gen. Augusto Pinochet hasta 1997. Chile's democratic restoration, two decades on, en Global Economy Matters presenta una breve exposición en inglés sobre la transición de Chile a la democracia.

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

I'm pleased to announce the publication of Part I of Presidential and Legislative Elections in Chile, which presents the results of general elections held in the South American country since 1989.

By the way, today's the twentieth anniversary of the October 5, 1988 referendum, in which the people of Chile rejected the continuation of Gen. Augusto Pinochet's presidential mandate until 1997. Chile's democratic restoration, two decades on, on Global Economy Matters, has a brief overview of Chile's transition to democracy.

Austria's two major parties emerged from Sunday's early parliamentary election in the Central European country with their worst election results since 1945. Both the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) and the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) - which had ruled Austria in a grand coalition government for a year-and-a-half - lost ground with respect to the previous election, but Sunday's vote was a further major setback for the People's Party, coming on top of heavy losses in the 2006 legislative election, and the center-right party's gains since 1999 have now been completely wiped out. On the other hand, the Social Democrats had less severe losses, and the left-of-center party was able to top the poll once more.

Meanwhile, the election's big winners were the country's two far-right parties, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ), the latter a 2005 FPÖ breakaway. Running separately, the two parties nearly doubled their combined share of the vote, which soared from 15.1% in 2006 to 29% this year - a figure which also stands above the FPÖ's best-ever result of 26.9% in 1999. In fact, other than for the division of the far-right vote between FPÖ and BZÖ, the outcome of this year's vote closely resembles that of the 1999 parliamentary election, and it is far from clear what kind of government will emerge from the election.

Federal Elections in Austria - Elections to the Nationalrat (National Council) has federal- and state-level results of parliamentary elections in Austria since 1945, including preliminary 2008 general election results.

Austria's SPÖ and ÖVP were not the only ruling parties to be humbled at the polls on Sunday. Just across the border, Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) lost its absolute majority in the Landtag (state legislature) for the first time since 1962. However, the CSU - the Bavarian counterpart of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) - remains the largest party in Germany's wealthiest state, and barring an unlikely alliance of the four opposition parties that will be represented in the new Landtag - namely the Social Democrats (SPD), the Free Voters, the Greens and the Free Democrats (F.D.P.) - it's likely to remain in power in Munich, possibly in coalition with the liberal F.D.P., which secured Landtag representation for the first time since 1990.

The Bavarian State Office for Statistics and Data Processing has detailed results in German of Sunday's state election here.

Less than nine months after coming to power, Ukraine's fragile, pro-western coalition government has collapsed, following months of wrangling between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. While the latter is expected to remain as caretaker head of government, she has only 30 days to cobble a new coalition cabinet; otherwise, the president may call an early parliamentary election - Ukraine's third in as many years.

The ruling coalition's collapse was triggered by differences between the president and the prime minister over support for Georgia during its recent conflict with Russia, which in due course led Ukraine's Supreme Council (Parliament) to pass laws curtailing the president's powers; Yushchenko regards these laws - which were adopted with the support of the opposition, pro-Russian Party of Regions - as a parliamentary "coup."

The clash between Yushchenko and Tymonshenko is by no means the first - three years ago, he fired her and the entire cabinet on grounds of incompetence, following a period of increasingly bitter in-fighting - and it's unlikely to be the last: Mrs. Tymoshenko is widely expected to run in the next presidential election (to be held in 2009 or 2010), and opinion polls have her in a tight race with Party of Regions leader Vyktor Yanukovych, while President Yushchenko is trailing far behind.

Ukraine holds an early parliamentary election, at Global Economy Matters covers the parliamentary election of September 2007 in the Eastern European country, and includes a comprehensive review of political developments in Ukraine since the former Soviet republic declared its independence in 1991.

As expected, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has called an early parliamentary election for next October 14. Harper, who has been in power since January 2006, heading a Conservative Party minority government, hopes to secure an absolute House of Commons majority in the upcoming general election - Canada's third in five years.

Federal Elections in Canada - Elections to the House of Commons describes Canada's electoral system, and includes results of Canadian general elections since 1993.

Meanwhile, Forbes.com reports that Japan may also be heading for an early parliamentary election, following the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda earlier this month. Although the ruling Liberal Democratic Party commands a large majority in the House of Representatives - the lower house of Japan's bicameral Parliament - the opposition parties have held a majority of seats in the House of Councillors - the upper house - since July of last year, and the two legislative bodies have clashed over a number of issues.

Parliamentary Elections in Japan has an overview of the Japanese electoral system, with election results since 1996 for both the House of Councillors and the House of Representatives.

(This posting is also available in English.)

Dos norteamericanos que residen en Puerto Rico pero que no hablan español han radicado un pleito ante el Tribunal Federal para que se le ordene a la Comisión Estatal de Elecciones (CEE) imprimir papeletas en inglés para las elecciones generales del próximo 4 de noviembre.

Al presente, la Comisión imprime papeletas e instrucciones de votación para las elecciones generales solamente en español, la lengua hablada por la abrumadora mayoría de los cuatro millones de habitantes de la isla caribeña (aunque en 2000 la Comisión llegó a imprimir una papeleta en ambos idiomas para la elección presidencial cancelada). De hecho, el pasado mes de abril la CEE discutió el asunto, pero los comisionados electorales que representan a los cuatro partidos políticos inscritos en Puerto Rico no pudieron llegar a un acuerdo, y en julio el presidente de la CEE, Ramón Gómez determinó que no es un requerimiento la impresión de las papeletas también en inglés, toda vez que no existe ninguna ley o reglamentación a esos fines.

En la demanda radicada se observa que de acuerdo a las estadísticas de idioma del Censo 2000 - que se calcularon a partir de una muestra de 1 en 6 en lugar de un conteo al 100% - el 14.4% de la población de Puerto Rico con cinco años de edad o más habla inglés solamente. Sin embargo, debe señalarse que en épocas recientes ha habido variaciones significativas en las cifras sobre la población exclusivamente anglófona de Puerto Rico ofrecidas por el Negociado del Censo de los E.E.U.U. De hecho, las estadísticas más recientes de la Encuesta sobre la Comunidad de Puerto Rico de 2006 del Negociado del Censo indican que poco menos de un 4.7% de los habitantes de Puerto Rico hablan solamente inglés, mientras que un 95.2% habla español. Estas cifras se aproximan bastante a las estadísticas de los censos de 1980 y 1990, las cuales indican que el 98.2% de la población de Puerto Rico hablaba español - mientras que casi tres cuartas partes del restante 1.8% no hablaba español ni inglés.

Los demandantes también plantean que en Puerto Rico tanto el inglés como el español son idiomas oficiales. No obstante, tras 110 años bajo la bandera estadounidense, el español sigue siendo la lengua dominante; la zona metropolitana de San Juan es más o menos bilingüe, pero el resto de Puerto Rico es casi exclusivamente hispanoparlante. De hecho, para el 2006, solamente una minoría reducida (15.1%) de la población hispanoparlante de Puerto Rico hablaba el inglés "muy bien," y muchos puertorriqueños - incluyendo a un gran número de empleados de gobierno - hablan muy poco o nada de inglés. Más aún, los partidos políticos de Puerto Rico siempre han llevado a cabo sus campañas electorales exclusivamente en español.

Dado que las cifras recientes de la Encuesta sobre la Comunidad de Puerto Rico de 2006 ponen en tela de juicio los anteriores hallazgos en materia de idioma del Censo 2000, no está claro si verdaderamente existe la necesidad de implantar papeletas electorales en inglés - al menos a nivel de todo Puerto Rico - pero los tribunales puede que decidan lo contrario.

Enlace: Quieren papeletas en inglés

Actualización

El 27 de agosto de 2008, el juez federal José Fusté ordenó a la CEE tener disponibles papeletas bilingües para las elecciones generales que se avecinan. El comisionado electoral del Partido Popular Democrático apeló la decisión, pero el 4 de septiembre la Corte del Primer Circuito de Apelaciones de los E.E.U.U. desestimó la apelación.

Enlace: "Yes" a las papeleta bilingüe

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

Two mainland Americans who reside in Puerto Rico but don't speak Spanish have filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court to force the Commonwealth Elections Commission (CEE) to print English-language ballots for the upcoming November 4 general election.

Currently, the Commission prints general election ballots and voting instructions only in Spanish, which is the language spoken by the overwhelming majority of the Caribbean island's four million inhabitants (although in 2000 the Commission did print a dual-language ballot for the cancelled presidential election). In fact, last April the Commission discussed the matter, but the electoral commissioners representing Puerto Rico's four registered political parties failed to reach an agreement, and in July CEE Chairman Ramón Gómez ruled that there is no requirement to print ballots in English as well, as there is no law or regulation to that end.

The filed lawsuit notes that according to the Census 2000 language statistics - which were calculated from a 1-in-6 sample instead of a 100% count - 14.4% of Puerto Rico's population over the age of five speaks only English. However, it should be noted that in recent times there have been significant variations in the U.S. Census Bureau figures on Puerto Rico's anglophone-only population. In fact, the most recent statistics from the Census Bureau's 2006 Puerto Rico Community Survey indicate that just under 4.7% of Puerto Rico's inhabitants speak only English, while 95.2% speak Spanish. These figures - which have a margin of error of +/-0.2% - come fairly close to the statistics from the 1980 and 1990 censuses, which indicate that 98.2% of the population of Puerto Rico spoke Spanish - while nearly three-quarters of the remaining 1.8% spoke neither Spanish nor English.

The plaintiffs also make the case that in Puerto Rico both English and Spanish are official languages. Nonetheless, after 110 years under the U.S. flag, Spanish remains the dominant language; the San Juan metro area is more-or-less bilingual, but the rest of Puerto Rico is almost exclusively Spanish-speaking. In fact, as of 2006 only a small minority (15.1%) of Puerto Rico's Spanish-speaking population spoke English "very well," and many Puerto Ricans - including a large number of government employees - speak little or no English. Moreover, Puerto Rico's political parties have always run their election campaigns exclusively in Spanish.

Given that recent statistics from the 2006 Puerto Rico Community Survey cast doubt on previous Census 2000 language findings, it's not clear that there is a need to establish English-language election ballots - at least on a Puerto Rico-wide basis - but the courts may rule otherwise.

Link (in Spanish): Quieren papeletas en inglés

Update

On August 27, 2008, U.S. District Court Judge José Fusté ordered the Commonwealth Elections Commission to have bilingual ballots available for the upcoming general election. The Popular Democratic Party's electoral commissioner appealed the ruling, but on September 4 the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit dismissed the appeal.

Link (in Spanish): "Yes" a las papeleta bilingüe

Last week, Belgium was plunged into political crisis once more when Prime Minister Yves Leterme offered to resign after only four months in power. Leterme assumed office last March - nine months after a general election was held in June 2007 - presiding over a coalition of Flemish and Francophone Christian Democrats and Liberals, as well as Francophone Socialists.

Belgium is linguistically divided between the Dutch-speaking Flemings in the north and the French-speaking Walloons in the south. Dutch speakers outnumber Francophones by a ratio of approximately 3-to-2, but the country was originally established in 1830 as an unitary polity with French as the sole official language; Dutch would not gain equal footing with French until 1898. Since 1970 a series of constitutional reforms have gradually transformed Belgium into a federal kingdom, and the two linguistic communities co-exist peacefully (along with a small German-speaking minority in the south-eastern part of the country), but relations are sometimes less than cordial, to put it mildly. Currently, Flemish parties want greater powers over taxation and social security to be devolved to the regions, although politicians in Wallonia - which is plagued by high unemployment - fear that would lead to a cut in subsidies from wealthier Flanders. In addition, both sides have been at odds over the rights of French speakers living in Flemish suburbs around Brussels, the officially bilingual capital of Belgium.

Leterme's government originally planned to focus mainly on immigration, tax cuts and pension benefits (although little was accomplished beyond balancing the budget), while largely avoiding the thorny issue of constitutional reform for further devolution of powers to the regions (other than for the transfer of minor powers over industrial policy and housing); instead, talks on increased devolution were to continue. However, the parties were unable to reach an agreement on the issue by Leterme's self-imposed deadline of July 15, triggering his resignation. While King Albert II subsequently rejected Leterme's offer to step down, the crisis is far from over, and the Belgian monarch appointed three senior political figures to find a way out of the impasse.

The ongoing crisis has led to renewed speculation about the possible break-up of Belgium into separate Flemish and Walloon nations, not unlike the peaceful, "velvet divorce" dissolution of Czechoslovakia in 1992. In fact, opinion polls indicate nearly one out of every two Flemings support the establishment of a sovereign Flanders. However, it should be noted that in Czechoslovakia the Czechs and the Slovaks lived within clearly defined, contiguous geographical areas which became the country's successor states, whereas Belgium's overwhelmingly Francophone capital, Brussels, is surrounded by Flemish territory, and it's far from clear what would become of it if the country actually broke up.

Ingrid Robeyns' The ingredients of the Belgian cocktail, published on Crooked Timber, has an excellent, in-depth review of the issues affecting Belgium. In addition, Federal Elections in Belgium has an overview of Belgium's electoral system and party politics, along with Belgian parliamentary election results since 1995, which now include multi-member constituency-level maps for the 2003 and 2007 general elections.

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

Puerto Rico, a U.S. Commonwealth, will hold a Democratic Party presidential primary on Sunday, June 1^st, 2008. The upcoming primary is the Democrats' first election event in the Caribbean island since 1995, when a primary was held for the position of local party chairman. Puerto Ricans are citizens of the United States, but U.S. citizens residing in Puerto Rico don’t vote in presidential elections, and don’t pay federal income taxes on income from sources in Puerto Rico (but pay Social Security and Medicare taxes).

Primary results are available at the bottom of this posting, under Update.

Although the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties hold presidential primaries in Puerto Rico, they don’t take part in the island’s general elections. Puerto Rican politics revolve around the status issue, that is the island’s political relationship with the U.S., and Puerto Rico has two major parties: the Popular Democratic Party (PPD), which favors retention of Commonwealth status, and the New Progressive Party (PNP), which promotes U.S. statehood. There are also two minor parties: the Puerto Rican Independence Party (PIP), which advocates the establishment of a sovereign republic, and Puerto Ricans for Puerto Rico (PPR), a recently-created, environmentalist-oriented party that doesn't take sides on the status issue.

There is a general consensus that Senator Hillary Clinton will prevail over Senator Barack Obama, but there has been much speculation regarding the voter turnout rate in the primary. As such, a brief overview of turnout in Puerto Rico election events is presented here, followed by an estimate of voter turnout in Sunday’s primary.

Puerto Rico has usually had a much higher turnout in general elections than the U.S. proper. For example, the island’s 2000 and 2004 general elections had turnout rates of 82.4% and 81.7% of registered voters, respectively. While these figures drop to 74.2% and 70% when turnout is calculated on the basis of the voting age population, they remain substantially higher than the voting age population turnout rates for the 2000 and 2004 U.S. presidential elections, which stood at 51.2% and 56.7%, respectively. Likewise, the 1993 and 1998 status plebiscites also had relatively high turnout rates: 73.5% and 71.3% of registered voters, respectively.

However, turnout for other election events held in Puerto Rico has been smaller than in general elections and status plebiscites. The 2003 and 2008 PPD and PNP local primaries had combined turnout rates of 37.6% and 44.4% of registered voters, while the 2005 unicameralism referendum had a turnout of only 22.6% of registered voters.

As for the Democratic primaries previously held in Puerto Rico, the highest turnout to date was registered in the 1980 presidential primary, in which nearly fifty percent of the electorate turned out to vote: it’s not possible to provide an accurate figure due to problems with the electoral registry at the time, but the total number of voters in the primary was 886,280. However, it should be noted that primary set a pattern that would repeat itself in some subsequent Democratic events (but not in 2008): the Popular Democrats and the New Progressives lined up behind opposing candidates - the former supported Sen. Ted Kennedy, the latter then-President Jimmy Carter - and the primary became a general election dress rehearsal; Carter won, and the two parties had results nearly identical to those of the 1976 general election.

The other two Democratic events that have attracted a substantial turnout were the 1988 primaries (for both presidential preference and local party chairman), and the aforementioned 1995 primary. In both occasions, turnout was relatively high for a primary – about one-third of the electorate – because the party chairman primary became once more a general election dress rehearsal, in which the Popular Democrats and the New Progressives backed their respective candidates; in both cases, the Popular Democratic Party candidates - Miguel Hernández-Agosto in 1988 and Celeste Benítez in 1995 – prevailed over Carlos Romero-Barceló, backed by the New Progressive Party. The 1988 primary had a turnout of 671,358 voters, while 722,371 voters took part in the 1995 primary; the latter figure increases to 738,064 if blank, unadjudicated and provisional ballots are included in the total. However, in the 1988 presidential preference primary, which was a "beauty contest" essentially overlooked by Puerto Rico’s two major parties - uncommitted delegates were chosen along with the party chairman – there were only 314,146 voters…and to everyone’s surprise, Jesse Jackson won with thirty-two percent of the vote.

In any event, this result showed that turnout in presidential primary processes depends upon mobilization of the electorate by Puerto Rico’s political parties, especially when events become general election dress rehearsals. However, when that element has been missing, voter turnout has collapsed – as was in the case in 1988.

Something similar happened in the 2005 unicameralism referendum, which had the lowest turnout of any election event in Puerto Rico, other than primaries. Neither of the two major parties was fully committed behind either of the two ballot options - in truth, both parties would have preferred not to hold the referendum in the first place, but they couldn’t agree on whether to postpone or cancel it. Moreover, well before election day there were several developments that were indicative of voter apathy over the event. Specifically, there were problems with the recruitment of poll workers, and the number of absentee ballot requests was nearly insignificant.

The case of the 2005 referendum is illustrative, as it shares a number of parallels with the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. None of the two major parties is committed behind either presidential candidate (there are Popular Democrats and New Progressives behind both Hillary Clinton as well as Barack Obama), once again there have been problems with the recruitment of poll workers (which have made it necessary to reduce the number of polling places from 3,000 to 2,300), and the number of absentee ballot requests is almost identical to the 2005 figure – and just as insignificant.

That said, the visits to Puerto Rico by Sen. Obama and (especially) Sen. Clinton have generated considerable interest, which could influence voter turnout in the primary. Meanwhile, voter turnout estimates vary from a minimum of 200,000 to a maximum of over one million. When asked by the news media, I have estimated 600,000 voters, plus or minus 100,000, that is 500,000 to 700,000 voters. This would be about 25% of Puerto Rico’s 2,367,000 registered voters for the primary, plus or minus four percent, for a turnout rate along the lines of the 2005 referendum - which could nonetheless vary depending on the impact that may have the presidential candidates’ electoral campaign activities in Puerto Rico.

In fact, the Commonwealth Elections Commission, which usually prints a number of paper ballots equal to three times the number of voters that are expected to turn out in an election event, has printed about 1,800,000 ballots for the primary, which suggests the agency expects about 600,000 voters to take part in the event. Moreover, the chairman of the Commission has estimated he expects more than half a million voters to turn out. At any rate, tonight we will know if these estimates are accurate or not.

Update

2008 Democratic presidential primary results issued by the Commonwealth Elections Commission have confirmed findings from various exit polls, which had Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama by a wide margin.

With 100% of the vote tallied, Sen. Clinton has won 263,120 votes (68%) to Sen. Obama's 121,458 (32%). At just over 16%, voter turnout in the primary has been much smaller than anticipated.

(This posting is also available in English.)

Puerto Rico, un Estado Libre Asociado de los EE.UU., celebrará primarias presidenciales del Partido Demócrata el domingo, 1^ro de junio de 2008. La primaria que se avecina es el primer evento electoral de los demócratas en la isla caribeña desde 1995, cuando se celebró una primaria para el cargo de presidente local del partido. Los puertorriqueños son ciudadanos de los EE.UU., pero los ciudadanos estadounidenses residentes en Puerto Rico no votan en elecciones presidenciales, y no pagan contribuciones federales sobre ingresos procedentes de fuentes en Puerto Rico (pero sí pagan contribuciones del Seguro Social y Medicare).

Los resultados de la primaria se encuentran al final de esta entrada, bajo Actualización.

Aunque los partidos Demócrata y Republicano de los EE.UU. celebran primarias presidenciales en Puerto Rico, éstos no participan en las elecciones generales de la isla. La política en Puerto Rico gira en torno al tema del status, es decir la relación política de la isla con los EE.UU., y Puerto Rico cuenta con dos partidos principales: el Partido Popular Democrático (PPD), favorecedor de retener la condición de Estado Libre Asociado, y el Partido Nuevo Progresista (PNP), que promueve la estadidad federada. Hay también dos partidos menores: el Partido Independentista Puertorriqueño (PIP), que aboga por el establecimiento de una república soberana, y Puertorriqueños por Puerto Rico (PPR), partido de orientación ambientalista y de reciente creación, que no toma bandos en el tema del status.

Existe un consenso generalizado de que la senadora Hillary Clinton prevalecerá sobre el senador Barack Obama, pero se ha especulado mucho en torno a la tasa de participación electoral en la primaria. Como tal, una breve exposición de la participación en los eventos electores de Puerto Rico se presenta a continuación, seguida de un estimado de la participación en la primaria del domingo.

Puerto Rico ha tenido usualmente una participación en elecciones generales mucho mayor que la de los EE.UU. Por ejemplo, las elecciones generales de 2000 y 2004 en la isla tuvieron unas tasas de participación de electores inscritos de 82.4% y 81.7%, respectivamente. Aunque estas cifras bajan a 74.2% y 70% cuando la participación se calcula sobre la base de la población con edad para votar, las mismas siguen siendo sustancialmente más altas que las tasas de participación de personas con edad para votar en las elecciones presidenciales de 2000 y 2004 en los EE.UU., que quedaron en 51.2% y 56.7%, respectivamente. Asimismo, los plebiscitos de status de 1993 y 1998 también tuvieron tasas de participación relativamente altas: 73.5% y 71.3% de los electores inscritos, respectivamente.

Sin embargo, la participación en otros eventos electorales celebrados en Puerto Rico ha sido menor que para las elecciones generales y los plebiscitos de status. Las primarias locales del PPD y el PNP de 2003 y 2008 tuvieron tasas de participación combinadas de 37.6% y 44.4% de los electores inscritos, mientras que el referéndum de unicameralidad de 2005 tuvo una participación de solamente un 22.6% de los electores inscritos.

En cuanto a las primarias demócratas celebradas anteriormente en Puerto Rico, la participación electoral más alta hasta la fecha se registró en la primaria presidencial de 1980, en la cual casi un cincuenta por ciento del electorado fue a votar: no es posible informar una cifra precisa debido a los problemas que hubo en aquel entonces con el registro electoral, pero el número total de votantes en la primaria fue de 886,280. Sin embargo, debe observarse que esta primaria estableció un patrón que se repetiría en algunos eventos posteriores de los demócratas (pero no en 2008): los populares y los novoprogresistas se alinearon detrás de candidatos opuestos – los primeros apoyaron al senador Ted Kennedy, los segundos al entonces presidente Jimmy Carter - y la primaria se convirtió en un ensayo de elección general; Carter ganó, y los dos partidos obtuvieron resultados casi idénticos a los de las elecciones generales de 1976.

Los otros dos eventos demócratas que han atraído una participación sustancial fueron las primarias de 1988 (tanto de preferencia presidencial como para la presidencia local del partido), y la ya mencionada primaria de 1995. En ambas ocasiones, la participación fue relativamente alta para una primaria – aproximadamente una tercera parte del electorado – toda vez que la primaria para la presidencia del partido se convirtió nuevamente en ensayo de elección general, en la cual los populares y los novoprogresistas respaldaron a sus respectivos candidatos; en ambos casos, los candidatos del Partido Popular – Miguel Hernández Agosto en 1988 y Celeste Benítez en 1995 – prevalecieron sobre Carlos Romero Barceló, respaldado por el Partido Nuevo Progresista. La primaria de 1988 tuvo una participación de 671,358 votantes, mientras que en la primaria de 1995 participaron 722,371 electores; esta última cifra aumenta a 738,064 si se incluyen en el total los votos en blanco, no adjudicados y añadidos a mano. Sin embargo, en la primaria de preferencia presidencial de 1988, que fue un "concurso de belleza" esencialmente pasado por alto por los dos partidos principales de Puerto Rico – se escogieron a delegados no comprometidos junto con el presidente del partido – hubo solamente 314,146 votantes...y para sorpresa de todos, Jesse Jackson ganó con un treinta y dos por ciento de los votos.

De cualquier manera, este resultado mostró que la participación en los procesos de primarias presidenciales depende claramente de la movilización del electorado por parte de los partidos políticos de Puerto Rico, especialmente cuando los eventos se convierten en ensayo de elección general. Sin embargo, cuando no ha estado presente ese elemento, la participación electoral se ha desplomado – como sucedió en 1988.

Algo parecido sucedió en el referéndum de unicameralidad de 2005, que tuvo la participación más baja de evento electoral alguno celebrado en Puerto Rico, aparte de las primarias. Ninguno de los dos partidos principales estaba completamente comprometido con una u otra de las dos opciones en la papeleta - en realidad, ambos partidos hubieran preferido que no se celebrara el referéndum en primer lugar, pero no pudieron ponerse de acuerdo en torno a si debían posponerlo o cancelarlo. Más aún, mucho antes del día de la elección hubo varios sucesos que indicaban la apatía del electorado en torno al evento. En particular, hubo problemas con el reclutamiento de funcionarios de los colegios de votación, y el número de solicitudes de voto ausente fue casi insignificante.

El caso del referéndum de 2005 es ilustrativo, toda vez que comparte un número de paralelos con la primaria presidencial de 2008. Ninguno de los dos partidos principales está comprometido con uno u otro candidato presidencial (hay populares y novoprogresistas tanto con Hillary Clinton como con Barack Obama), nuevamente ha habido problemas con el reclutamiento de los funcionarios de colegios de votación (lo cual ha hecho necesario reducir el número de colegios de 3,000 a 2,300), y el número de solicitudes de voto ausente ha sido casi idéntico a la cifra de 2005 – e igualmente insignificante.

Dicho esto, las visitas a Puerto Rico del senador Obama y (especialmente) de la senadora Clinton han generado un interés considerable, que pudiera influir sobre la participación en la primaria. Entre tanto, los estimados de participación electoral varían desde un mínimo de 200,000 hasta un máximo de más de un millón de votantes. A preguntas de los medios noticiosos, yo he estimado unos 600,000 votantes, más o menos 100,000, es decir de 500,000 a 700,000 votantes. Esto sería un 25% de los 2,367,000 electores inscritos en Puerto Rico para la primaria, más o menos un cuatro por ciento, para una tasa de participación que se aproxima a la del referéndum de 2005 - pero que pudiera variar dependiendo del impacto que tengan las actividades de campaña electoral en Puerto Rico de los candidatos presidenciales.

De hecho, la Comisión Estatal de Elecciones, que suele imprimir una cantidad de papeletas de votación igual a tres veces el número de votantes que se espera que acudan a un evento electoral, ha impreso cerca de 1,800,000 papeletas para la primaria, lo cual sugiere que la agencia espera que participen en el evento unos 600,000 electores. Más aún, el presidente de la Comisión ha declarado que espera una participación de más de medio millón de electores. De cualquier manera, en la noche de hoy sabremos si estos estimados son acertados o no.

Actualización

Los resultados de la primaria presidencial demócrata de 2008 emitidos por la Comisión Estatal de Elecciones han confirmado los hallazgos de varias encuestas de boca de urna, que colocaron a Hillary Clinton al frente de Barack Obama por un amplio margen.

Con el 100% de los votos contabilizados, la senadora Clinton ha obtenido 263,120 votos (68%) frente a 121,458 (32%) para el senador Obama. La participación electoral en la primaria, que ha quedado en poco más de 16%, ha sido mucho menor de lo que se anticipaba.