Electoral Panorama / Panorama Electoral

On India's election, and its economy

2009-05-18T23:19:00.004-04:00

Global Economy Matters now features two postings about India, which just held a general election. India's 2009 general election delivers a surprise outcome covers the vote in the world's largest democratically-ruled country, while Edward Hugh puts forward an intriguing question: Is The Indian Economy Heading For Its Finest Hour?

Eastern Europe update

2009-03-29T12:04:00.005-04:00

Bulgaria holds a parliamentary election this year, currently scheduled for June 14. Elections to the Bulgarian National Assembly has the results of legislative elections in Bulgaria since 1991, as well as an overview of Bulgaria's proportional representation electoral system.

Detailed election statistics are also available in Bulgarian Elections since 1991; the site's introductory pages are in Bulgarian, but results are available in both Bulgarian and English.

The Czech Republic's center-right coalition government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek collapsed last week after losing a parliamentary vote of confidence, and the Central European country will be holding an early legislative election this year, following an agreement between Topolánek, who heads the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), the largest party in Parliament, and Jiří Paroubek, the leader of the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD), the main opposition party.

The election is expected to be held by October, but the actual date has not been determined yet. Parliamentary Elections in the Czech Republic - Elections to the Chamber of Deputies has an overview of the Czech electoral system, as well as lower house election results since 1996.

Update-on-the-update: Topolánek's toppling leads to early Czech election, on Global Economy Matters covers the ongoing cabinet crisis.

Hungarian Prime Minister Gyurcsány steps down - now what?, on Global Economy Matters covers the announced departure of Hungary's head of government.

Elections to the Hungarian National Assembly has a description of Hungary's complicated electoral system, as well as parliamentary election results since 1990.

Macedonia and Moldova go to the polls next April 5, the former for a presidential runoff election, the latter for parliamentary elections. Election links for both countries are available on Election Resources on the Internet: Central and Eastern Europe.

Montenegro holds an early parliamentary election today, eighteen months ahead of schedule. The Republic Electoral Commission has the results of the preceding 2006 general election in Montenegrin (Serbian).

Update-on-the-update: Montenegro's Republic Electoral Commission now has 2009 election results on its website.

Slovakia, which held a presidential election last March 21, returns to the polls next Saturday, April 4 for a runoff vote. Presidential and Legislative Elections in Slovakia has the results of national elections in Slovakia since 1994, and an overview of the Slovak electoral system, while Slovakia's 2009 presidential election, on Global Economy Matters has more information about this year's presidential vote.

Finally, Turkey holds local elections today that are seen as a referendum on the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. AKP narrowly avoided being outlawed last year, as detailed in Elections to the Turkish Grand National Assembly.

Update-on-the-update: Turkish newsdaily Hurriyet ("Liberty") has live 2009 election results in English and Turkish here; live results are also available in Turkish only on NTVMSNBC's Election 2009 website.

PSdeG-PSOE also wins an additional seat in the Galician Parliament

2009-03-10T09:52:00.009-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The Party of Galician Socialists (PSdeG-PSOE) has won an additional seat in the Galician Parliament after absentee votes were tallied in the province of Ourense (Orense), according to Spanish news media reports.

In the election to the Galician Parliament held at the beginning of this month, the Popular Party (PP) won the last of Ourense's fourteen seats with a quotient of 12,895 (for a total of eight mandates), while PSdeG-PSOE obtained four seats and attained a quotient of 12,833 for a fifth mandate. However, the Galician Socialists won 7,979 votes from Galician voters residing abroad to 6,465 for PP, which were more than enough to modify the preliminary seat allocation: PSdeG-PSOE only needed to obtain 311 additional votes, and then five votes for every eight won by PP.

As a result, the distribution of seats in the Galician Parliament now stands as follows:

PP - 38
PSdeG-PSOE - 25
BNG - 12

The loss of Ourense's last seat reduces PP's absolute majority to a single vote, while PSdeG-PSOE now has the same number of mandates it won four years ago.

Link (in Spanish): El voto emigrante da un quinto escaño al PSdeG

PSdeG-PSOE también consigue escaño adicional en el Parlamento de Galicia

2009-03-10T09:52:00.007-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

El Partido dos Socialista de Galicia (PSdeG-PSOE) ha conseguido un escaño adicional en el Parlamento de Galicia luego de que se contabilizara el voto ausente en la provincia de Ourense (Orense), según informes de los medios noticiosos de España.

En las elecciones al Parlamento de Galicia celebradas a principios de este mes, el Partido Popular (PP) consiguió el último de los catorce escaños de Ourense con un cociente de 12,895 (para un total de ocho mandatos), mientras que PSdeG-PSOE obtuvo cuatro escaños y alcanzó un cociente de 12,833 para un quinto mandato. Sin embargo, los socialistas gallegos consiguieron 7,979 votos de electores gallegos residentes en el extranjero frente a 6,465 para el PP, los cuales fueron más que suficientes para modificar el reparto preliminar de escaños: el PSdeG-PSOE solamente necesitaba obtener 311 votos adicionales, y entonces cinco votos por cada ocho que obtuviera el PP.

Como resultado, la distribución de escaños en el Parlamento de Galicia queda ahora de la siguiente manera:

PP - 38
PSdeG-PSOE - 25
BNG - 12

La pérdida del último escaño en Ourense reduce la mayoría absoluta del PP a un solo escaño, mientras que PSdeG-PSOE cuenta ahora con el mismo número de mandatos que obtuvo hace cuatro años.

Enlace: El voto emigrante da un quinto escaño al PSdeG

PSE-EE captures additional seat in Basque Parliament

2009-03-06T11:25:00.010-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The Spanish news media reports that the Socialist Party of Euskadi-Euskadi Left (PSE-EE/PSOE) has won an additional seat in the Basque Parliament, following today's tally of absentee votes in the province of Araba (Álava).

In last Sunday's election to the Basque Parliament, Basque Solidarity (EA) won the last of Araba's twenty-five seats with 5,267 votes, narrowly ahead of PSE-EE, which had a quotient of 5,266 for a ninth mandate. However, EA won only six votes from Basque voters residing abroad to 140 for PSE-EE, which divided by nine are more than enough to overcome EA's lead in the preliminary count.

According to Europa Press, the distribution of the CERA (absentee) vote in Araba was as follows:

EAJ/PNV - 146
PSE-EE/PSOE - 140
PP - 83
EB-B - 16
UPyD - 12
Aralar - 7
EA - 6
Others - 9

As a result, the distribution of seats in the Basque Parliament now stands as follows:

EAJ-PNV - 30
PSE-EE/PSOE - 25
PP - 13
Aralar - 4
EA - 1
EB-B - 1
UPyD - 1

The loss of Araba's seat is a fresh setback for the EA party, which lost its single seat in the Congress of Deputies in last year's general election in Spain, and now will be reduced to a single seat in the Basque Parliament (down from seven won four years ago in coalition with EAJ-PNV). But more importantly, Spain's two major parties - PSOE and PP - will command a joint majority of one vote in the Basque legislature, and PSE-EE leader Patxi López could form a government solely with PP support, without having to depend on the anti-nationalist Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD).

Link (in Spanish): El PSE-EE obtiene 140 votos de los residentes en el extranjero, frente a los 6 de EA

PSE-EE captura un escaño adicional en el Parlamento Vasco

2009-03-06T11:25:00.008-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Los medios noticiosos de España informan que el Partido Socialista de Euskadi-Euskadiko Ezkerra (PSE-EE/PSOE) ha conseguido un escaño adicional en el Parlamento Vasco, tras la contabilización en el día de hoy del voto ausente en la provincia de Araba (Álava).

En las elecciones al Parlamento Vasco del pasado domingo, Eusko Alkartasuna (EA) consiguió el último de los veinticinco escaños de Araba con 5,267 votos, escasamente al frente de PSE-EE, que tenía un cociente de 5,266 para un noveno mandato. Sin embargo, EA solamente obtuvo seis votos de electores vascos residentes en el extranjero frente a 140 para PSE-EE, los cuales divididos por nueve son más que suficientes para superar la ventaja de EA en el conteo preliminar.

Según Europa Press, la distribución del voto CERA en Araba quedó de la siguiente manera:

EAJ/PNV - 146
PSE-EE/PSOE - 140
PP - 83
EB-B - 16
UPyD - 12
Aralar - 7
EA - 6
Otros - 9

Como resultado, la distribución de escaños en el Parlamento Vasco queda ahora de la siguiente manera:

EAJ-PNV - 30
PSE-EE/PSOE - 25
PP - 13
Aralar - 4
EA - 1
EB-B - 1
UPyD - 1

La pérdida del escaño en Araba constituye un nuevo revés para EA, formación que perdió su único escaño en el Congreso de los Diputados en las elecciones generales celebradas en España el año pasado, y que ahora quedará reducida a un solo escaño en el Parlamento Vasco (de siete que obtuvo hace cuatro años en coalición con EAJ-PNV). Pero más importante aún, los dos partidos principales de España - el PSOE y el PP - ostentarán una mayoría conjunta de un voto en la legislatura vasca, y el líder del PSE-EE, Patxi López podría formar gobierno exclusivamente con el apoyo del PP, sin tener que depender de la anti-nacionalista Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD).

Enlace: El PSE-EE obtiene 140 votos de los residentes en el extranjero, frente a los 6 de EA

Elections in Galicia and the Basque Country

2009-02-18T12:55:00.005-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The self-governing communities of Galicia and the Basque Country (Euskadi), located in northwestern and northern Spain, respectively, go to the polls on Sunday, March 1^st, 2009, to elect their devolved legislatures. The results of autonomic elections held in Galicia from 1981 to 2009 and in Euskadi from 1980 to 2009, as well as an overview of the Galician and Basque proportional representation electoral systems are now available in Elections to the Galician Parliament and Elections to the Basque Parliament.

The 2009 Basque Parliament election will be the first autonomic poll in which radical nationalist parties linked to the ETA terrorist group won't participate. I have written a commentary on the topic for the Hotline section of JURIST, the University of Pittsburgh School of Law blog, under Spain's ban on radical nationalist Basque parties adds unpredictability to March election.

Finally, the list of Spain election resources now includes a link to the Elections to the Galician Parliament 2009 official website, available in Galician and Spanish.

Elecciones en Galicia y el País Vasco

2009-02-18T12:55:00.004-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Las comunidades autónomas de Galicia y el País Vasco (Euskadi), situadas en el noroeste y el norte de España, respectivamente, acuden a las urnas el domingo, 1^ro de marzo de 2009 para elegir sus legislaturas autonómicas. Los resultados de las elecciones autonómicas celebradas en Galicia de 1981 a 2009 y en Euskadi de 1980 a 2009, así como una breve exposición de los sistemas electorales de representación proporcional gallego y vasco están ahora disponibles en Elecciones al Parlamento de Galicia y Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco.

Las elecciones al Parlamento Vasco de 2009 serán la primera consulta autonómica en la cual no participarán partidos nacionalistas radicales vinculados al grupo terrorista ETA. He redactado un comentario en inglés sobre este asunto para la sección Hotline de JURIST, el blog de la Escuela de Derecho de la Universidad de Pittsburgh, bajo Spain's ban on radical nationalist Basque parties adds unpredictability to March election.

Finalmente, la lista de recursos electorales de España incluye ahora un enlace a la web oficial de las Elecciones al Parlamento de Galicia 2009, disponible en gallego y español.

2009 Israeli general election results

2009-02-11T01:57:00.005-04:00

As of February 12, 2009, the results of Tuesday's general election in Israel and the distribution of Knesset seats stand as follows:

Kadima - 758,032 votes (22.5%), 28 seats
Likud - 729,054 votes (21.6%), 27 seats
Yisrael Beitenu - 394,577 votes (11.7%), 15 seats
Labor Party - 334,900 votes (9.9%), 13 seats
Shas - 286,300 votes (8.5%), 11 seats
United Torah Judaism - 147,954 votes (4.4%), 5 seats
United Arab List-Ta'al - 113,954 votes (3.4%), 4 seats
National Union - 112,570 votes (3.3%), 4 seats
Hadash - 112,130 votes (3.3%), 4 seats
New Movement-Meretz - 99,611 votes (3.0%), 3 seats
Jewish Home (Habayit Hayehudi) - 96,765 votes (2.9%), 3 seats
National Democratic Assembly (Balad) - 83,739 votes (2.5%), 3 seats
Others - 103,904 votes (3.1%), no seats

The Israeli Knesset has full 2009 election results here (in Hebrew), while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has the distribution of Knesset seats (in English).

On Latvian parliamentary elections, past and future

2009-02-04T20:29:00.004-04:00

Is Latvia still headed for an early election?, on Global Economy Matters (and cross-posted on Latvia Economy Watch and Baltic Economy Watch) reviews current political developments in the Baltic republic, where the four-party coalition government of Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis prevailed today in a parliamentary vote of confidence.

Meanwhile, Part I of Elections to the Latvian Saeima (Parliament) is now available, with an overview of Latvia's proportional representation system and the results of the 1998, 2002 and 2006 parliamentary elections; I also reviewed Latvian politics two years ago in 2006 Parliamentary Elections in Latvia.

Elections to the Israeli Knesset

2009-02-01T00:20:00.003-04:00

Israel goes to the polls in nine days for an early parliamentary election, and Elections to the Israeli Knesset has an overview of the Jewish state's proportional representation electoral system, along with nationwide results of Knesset elections from 1992 to 2006.

El Salvador's quirky proportional representation system

2009-01-29T20:20:00.006-04:00

Matthew Shugart's Fruits and Votes blog has an in-depth discussion on the unusual behavior of the proportional representation system used in El Salvador, which held a legislative election last January 18.

The 84 members of the Central American nation's unicameral Legislative Assembly are chosen by the largest remainder method of PR in fourteen multi-member constituencies - the departments of El Salvador. However, the system often works to the advantage of smaller parties, particularly the right-wing National Conciliation Party (PCN), which elected eleven deputies (13.1% of the total) with just 8.8% of the vote. Meanwhile, the country's two major parties - the ruling, conservative Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) and the left-wing opposition Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) - ended up slightly under-represented in the Assembly.

In response to Prof. Shugart's suggestion about distributing Assembly seats by the D'Hondt rule, I calculated the notional distribution of Legislative Assembly seats under that procedure as well as other PR methods, and the results are actually quite surprising.

Incidentally, El Salvador's recently held poll was a warm-up act for the upcoming presidential election, scheduled to be held next March 15.

The sharp decline of Puerto Rico's voter turnout rate

2009-01-07T12:55:00.001-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The decline of Puerto Rico's voter turnout rate has accelerated following the 2008 election, but official statistics do not show the full scope of the problem.

The Commonwealth Elections Commission (CEE) reports that 1,942,931 out of 2,458,036 registered voters took part in the general election held last November 4, for a 79% voter turnout rate - a figure that not only stands 2.7% below the 81.7% that turned out to vote in the 2004 election, but also constitutes the fourth consecutive decline in turnout since 1992.

However, the CEE statistics don't take into account voting-age individuals who aren't registered, which represent a growing share of the population of Puerto Rico aged 18 years or older. In 2000 the voter registration rate - the percentage of the voting-age population registered to take part in election processes - stood at 90.1%, but this figure dropped to 85.6% in 2004, and to 82.7% in 2008. According to the 2008 population estimates released last December by the U.S. Census Bureau, Puerto Rico had 2,971,764 individuals aged 18 years or older, and therefore the voting-age population turnout rate for the 2008 election was just 65.4%, or 4.6% lower than in the 2004 election, in which the electorate that voted according to the official rolls constituted 70% of Puerto Rico's voting-age population.

In fact, the voter turnout rate for the population aged 18 years or older is not just markedly lower than the turnout figure for registered voters, but the gap separating both figures is widening, due to the collapse of the voter registration rate. Although the CEE has acknowledged that voter turnout in 2008 finished below its expectations, the agency has so far ignored the far more serious problem regarding the growing number of voting-age individuals that aren't registered; on the contrary, last September the Commission sought to present the small increase in the total number of registered voters (relative to the 2004 election) as a huge success.

Finally, it must be noted that while the turnout rate of Puerto Rico's voting-age population remains higher than that for the U.S. proper, the difference has shrunk dramatically over the course of this decade. In 2000, 74.2% of Puerto Rico's population aged 18 years or older voted in the general election, while in the United States only 51.2% turned out to vote, for a difference of twenty-three percentage points. However, 56.8% of the voting-age population took part in the U.S. 2008 general election, which is just 8.6% lower than in Puerto Rico.

El pronunciado declive de la tasa de participación electoral en Puerto Rico

2009-01-07T12:55:00.000-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

El declive de la tasa de participación electoral en Puerto Rico se ha acelerado tras las elecciones de 2008, pero las estadísticas oficiales no revelan el alcance del problema en su totalidad.

La Comisión Estatal de Elecciones (CEE) informa que 1,942,931 de 2,458,036 electores inscritos votaron en las elecciones generales celebradas el pasado 4 de noviembre, para una tasa de participación electoral de 79% - cifra que no solamente se sitúa 2.7% por debajo del 81.7% que acudió a votar en 2004, sino que también constituye el cuarto declive consecutivo de la tasa de participación desde 1992.

Sin embargo, las estadísticas de la CEE no toman en cuenta a las personas con edad para votar que no se inscriben, las cuales representan una porción creciente de la población de Puerto Rico de 18 años o más. En 2000 la tasa de inscripción electoral - el porciento de la población con edad para votar que está inscrito para participar en los procesos electorales - se situaba en 90.1%, pero esta cifra cayó a 85.6% en 2004 y a 82.7% en 2008. De acuerdo con los estimados de población para 2008 publicados el pasado mes de diciembre por el Negociado del Censo de los E.E.U.U., Puerto Rico contaba con 2,971,764 personas de 18 años de edad o más, y por lo tanto la tasa de participación electoral de personas con edad para votar en las elecciones de 2008 fue de solamente 65.4%, ó un 4.6% menos que en las elecciones de 2004, en las cuales el electorado que votó según lista constituyó el 70% de los habitantes de Puerto Rico con edad para votar.

De hecho, la tasa de participación electoral para la población de 18 años o más no solamente es marcadamente inferior a la cifra de participación para los electores inscritos, sino que la brecha que separa a ambas cifras se está ampliando, debido al colapso de la tasa de inscripción. Aunque la CEE ha reconocido que la participación electoral en 2008 quedó por debajo de sus expectativas, hasta la fecha la agencia ha ignorado el problema mucho más serio en torno al número creciente de personas con edad para votar que no están inscritos; por el contrario, en septiembre del año pasado la Comisión procuró presentar el reducido aumento del total de electores inscritos (con respecto a las elecciones de 2004) como un gran éxito.

Finalmente, debe señalarse que si bien la tasa de participación de la población de Puerto Rico con edad para votar sigue siendo mayor que la correspondiente a los E.E.U.U. propiamente dichos, la diferencia se ha reducido dramáticamente en el transcurso de esta década. En 2000, el 74.2% de la población de Puerto Rico de 18 años o más votó en las elecciones generales, mientras que en Estados Unidos solamente acudió a votar el 51.2%, para una diferencia de veintitrés puntos porcentuales. Sin embargo, el 56.8% de la población con edad para votar participó en las elecciones generales de 2008 en los E.U.U.U., lo cual es solamente un 8.6% menos que en Puerto Rico.

Federal Elections in the United States of America

2008-10-19T20:52:00.002-04:00

I'm very pleased to announce that Part I of Federal Elections in the United States of America is now online, with the results of the 1996, 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, as well as state-level general election maps for presidential, U.S. Senate and House of Representatives elections since 1996 (which include 2000-2006 Senate and House election maps originally published in this blog for the 2006 mid-term election).

Speaking of election maps, I would like to note that for House of Representatives elections, map colors are determined according to the number of seats, not votes; the latter are only used to break ties in the number of seats. Thus, in the 2006 election both Arizona and Mississippi had equal party representation in the House, but the Republican Party won a majority of the popular vote in these two states, and consequently both appear red on the map. Incidentally, I use the exact same procedure for other countries' election maps.

Elecciones Presidenciales y Legislativas en Chile

2008-10-05T16:16:00.006-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Me complace anunciar la publicación de la primera parte de Elecciones Presidenciales y Legislativas en Chile, que presenta los resultados de las elecciones generales celebradas en el país sudamericano a partir de 1989.

Por cierto, hoy se cumple el vigésimo aniversario del referéndum del 5 de octubre de 1988, en el cual el pueblo chileno rechazó la continuación del mandato presidencial del Gen. Augusto Pinochet hasta 1997. Chile's democratic restoration, two decades on, en Global Economy Matters presenta una breve exposición en inglés sobre la transición de Chile a la democracia.

Presidential and Legislative Elections in Chile

2008-10-05T16:16:00.004-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

I'm pleased to announce the publication of Part I of Presidential and Legislative Elections in Chile, which presents the results of general elections held in the South American country since 1989.

By the way, today's the twentieth anniversary of the October 5, 1988 referendum, in which the people of Chile rejected the continuation of Gen. Augusto Pinochet's presidential mandate until 1997. Chile's democratic restoration, two decades on, on Global Economy Matters, has a brief overview of Chile's transition to democracy.

Electoral upheavals in Austria and Bavaria

2008-09-28T19:51:00.004-04:00

Austria's two major parties emerged from Sunday's early parliamentary election in the Central European country with their worst election results since 1945. Both the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) and the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) - which had ruled Austria in a grand coalition government for a year-and-a-half - lost ground with respect to the previous election, but Sunday's vote was a further major setback for the People's Party, coming on top of heavy losses in the 2006 legislative election, and the center-right party's gains since 1999 have now been completely wiped out. On the other hand, the Social Democrats had less severe losses, and the left-of-center party was able to top the poll once more.

Meanwhile, the election's big winners were the country's two far-right parties, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ), the latter a 2005 FPÖ breakaway. Running separately, the two parties nearly doubled their combined share of the vote, which soared from 15.1% in 2006 to 29% this year - a figure which also stands above the FPÖ's best-ever result of 26.9% in 1999. In fact, other than for the division of the far-right vote between FPÖ and BZÖ, the outcome of this year's vote closely resembles that of the 1999 parliamentary election, and it is far from clear what kind of government will emerge from the election.

Federal Elections in Austria - Elections to the Nationalrat (National Council) has federal- and state-level results of parliamentary elections in Austria since 1945, including preliminary 2008 general election results.

Austria's SPÖ and ÖVP were not the only ruling parties to be humbled at the polls on Sunday. Just across the border, Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) lost its absolute majority in the Landtag (state legislature) for the first time since 1962. However, the CSU - the Bavarian counterpart of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) - remains the largest party in Germany's wealthiest state, and barring an unlikely alliance of the four opposition parties that will be represented in the new Landtag - namely the Social Democrats (SPD), the Free Voters, the Greens and the Free Democrats (F.D.P.) - it's likely to remain in power in Munich, possibly in coalition with the liberal F.D.P., which secured Landtag representation for the first time since 1990.

The Bavarian State Office for Statistics and Data Processing has detailed results in German of Sunday's state election here.

Ukraine's government falls, another early election a possibility

2008-09-16T14:07:00.006-04:00

Less than nine months after coming to power, Ukraine's fragile, pro-western coalition government has collapsed, following months of wrangling between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. While the latter is expected to remain as caretaker head of government, she has only 30 days to cobble a new coalition cabinet; otherwise, the president may call an early parliamentary election - Ukraine's third in as many years.

The ruling coalition's collapse was triggered by differences between the president and the prime minister over support for Georgia during its recent conflict with Russia, which in due course led Ukraine's Supreme Council (Parliament) to pass laws curtailing the president's powers; Yushchenko regards these laws - which were adopted with the support of the opposition, pro-Russian Party of Regions - as a parliamentary "coup."

The clash between Yushchenko and Tymonshenko is by no means the first - three years ago, he fired her and the entire cabinet on grounds of incompetence, following a period of increasingly bitter in-fighting - and it's unlikely to be the last: Mrs. Tymoshenko is widely expected to run in the next presidential election (to be held in 2009 or 2010), and opinion polls have her in a tight race with Party of Regions leader Vyktor Yanukovych, while President Yushchenko is trailing far behind.

Ukraine holds an early parliamentary election, at Global Economy Matters covers the parliamentary election of September 2007 in the Eastern European country, and includes a comprehensive review of political developments in Ukraine since the former Soviet republic declared its independence in 1991.

Update

On October 8, 2008, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko dissolved the Supreme Council and called an early parliamentary election, which will be held next December 7. However, Prime Minister Tymoshenko's Bloc subsequently filed a lawsuit to stop the election, and on Saturday, October 11, Kiev's District Administrative Court suspended the presidential decree that dissolved Parliament and called the early election. Meanwhile, President Yushchenko insists the order has no authority since he fired the judge before he handed down the ruling, and the matter is now in the hands of Kiev's Appeals Court.

The political tug-of-war between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko comes in the middle of a global financial crisis, and as Edward Hugh writes on Global Economy Matters, Ukraine Wobbles As The Financial Ground Beneath It Trembles.

Early elections in Canada and (possibly) Japan

2008-09-08T00:18:00.003-04:00

As expected, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has called an early parliamentary election for next October 14. Harper, who has been in power since January 2006, heading a Conservative Party minority government, hopes to secure an absolute House of Commons majority in the upcoming general election - Canada's third in five years.

Federal Elections in Canada - Elections to the House of Commons describes Canada's electoral system, and includes results of Canadian general elections since 1993.

Meanwhile, Forbes.com reports that Japan may also be heading for an early parliamentary election, following the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda earlier this month. Although the ruling Liberal Democratic Party commands a large majority in the House of Representatives - the lower house of Japan's bicameral Parliament - the opposition parties have held a majority of seats in the House of Councillors - the upper house - since July of last year, and the two legislative bodies have clashed over a number of issues.

Parliamentary Elections in Japan has an overview of the Japanese electoral system, with election results since 1996 for both the House of Councillors and the House of Representatives.

La controversia sobre las papeletas electorales en inglés de Puerto Rico

2008-08-24T08:32:00.009-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Dos norteamericanos que residen en Puerto Rico pero que no hablan español han radicado un pleito ante el Tribunal Federal para que se le ordene a la Comisión Estatal de Elecciones (CEE) imprimir papeletas en inglés para las elecciones generales del próximo 4 de noviembre.

Al presente, la Comisión imprime papeletas e instrucciones de votación para las elecciones generales solamente en español, la lengua hablada por la abrumadora mayoría de los cuatro millones de habitantes de la isla caribeña (aunque en 2000 la Comisión llegó a imprimir una papeleta en ambos idiomas para la elección presidencial cancelada). De hecho, el pasado mes de abril la CEE discutió el asunto, pero los comisionados electorales que representan a los cuatro partidos políticos inscritos en Puerto Rico no pudieron llegar a un acuerdo, y en julio el presidente de la CEE, Ramón Gómez determinó que no es un requerimiento la impresión de las papeletas también en inglés, toda vez que no existe ninguna ley o reglamentación a esos fines.

En la demanda radicada se observa que de acuerdo a las estadísticas de idioma del Censo 2000 - que se calcularon a partir de una muestra de 1 en 6 en lugar de un conteo al 100% - el 14.4% de la población de Puerto Rico con cinco años de edad o más habla inglés solamente. Sin embargo, debe señalarse que en épocas recientes ha habido variaciones significativas en las cifras sobre la población exclusivamente anglófona de Puerto Rico ofrecidas por el Negociado del Censo de los E.E.U.U. De hecho, las estadísticas más recientes de la Encuesta sobre la Comunidad de Puerto Rico de 2006 del Negociado del Censo indican que poco menos de un 4.7% de los habitantes de Puerto Rico hablan solamente inglés, mientras que un 95.2% habla español. Estas cifras se aproximan bastante a las estadísticas de los censos de 1980 y 1990, las cuales indican que el 98.2% de la población de Puerto Rico hablaba español - mientras que casi tres cuartas partes del restante 1.8% no hablaba español ni inglés.

Los demandantes también plantean que en Puerto Rico tanto el inglés como el español son idiomas oficiales. No obstante, tras 110 años bajo la bandera estadounidense, el español sigue siendo la lengua dominante; la zona metropolitana de San Juan es más o menos bilingüe, pero el resto de Puerto Rico es casi exclusivamente hispanoparlante. De hecho, para el 2006, solamente una minoría reducida (15.1%) de la población hispanoparlante de Puerto Rico hablaba el inglés "muy bien," y muchos puertorriqueños - incluyendo a un gran número de empleados de gobierno - hablan muy poco o nada de inglés. Más aún, los partidos políticos de Puerto Rico siempre han llevado a cabo sus campañas electorales exclusivamente en español.

Dado que las cifras recientes de la Encuesta sobre la Comunidad de Puerto Rico de 2006 ponen en tela de juicio los anteriores hallazgos en materia de idioma del Censo 2000, no está claro si verdaderamente existe la necesidad de implantar papeletas electorales en inglés - al menos a nivel de todo Puerto Rico - pero los tribunales puede que decidan lo contrario.

Enlace: Quieren papeletas en inglés

Actualización

El 27 de agosto de 2008, el juez federal José Fusté ordenó a la CEE tener disponibles papeletas bilingües para las elecciones generales que se avecinan. El comisionado electoral del Partido Popular Democrático apeló la decisión, pero el 4 de septiembre la Corte del Primer Circuito de Apelaciones de los E.E.U.U. desestimó la apelación.

Enlace: "Yes" a las papeleta bilingüe

Puerto Rico's English-language election ballots controversy

2008-08-24T08:32:00.008-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

Two mainland Americans who reside in Puerto Rico but don't speak Spanish have filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court to force the Commonwealth Elections Commission (CEE) to print English-language ballots for the upcoming November 4 general election.

Currently, the Commission prints general election ballots and voting instructions only in Spanish, which is the language spoken by the overwhelming majority of the Caribbean island's four million inhabitants (although in 2000 the Commission did print a dual-language ballot for the cancelled presidential election). In fact, last April the Commission discussed the matter, but the electoral commissioners representing Puerto Rico's four registered political parties failed to reach an agreement, and in July CEE Chairman Ramón Gómez ruled that there is no requirement to print ballots in English as well, as there is no law or regulation to that end.

The filed lawsuit notes that according to the Census 2000 language statistics - which were calculated from a 1-in-6 sample instead of a 100% count - 14.4% of Puerto Rico's population over the age of five speaks only English. However, it should be noted that in recent times there have been significant variations in the U.S. Census Bureau figures on Puerto Rico's anglophone-only population. In fact, the most recent statistics from the Census Bureau's 2006 Puerto Rico Community Survey indicate that just under 4.7% of Puerto Rico's inhabitants speak only English, while 95.2% speak Spanish. These figures - which have a margin of error of +/-0.2% - come fairly close to the statistics from the 1980 and 1990 censuses, which indicate that 98.2% of the population of Puerto Rico spoke Spanish - while nearly three-quarters of the remaining 1.8% spoke neither Spanish nor English.

The plaintiffs also make the case that in Puerto Rico both English and Spanish are official languages. Nonetheless, after 110 years under the U.S. flag, Spanish remains the dominant language; the San Juan metro area is more-or-less bilingual, but the rest of Puerto Rico is almost exclusively Spanish-speaking. In fact, as of 2006 only a small minority (15.1%) of Puerto Rico's Spanish-speaking population spoke English "very well," and many Puerto Ricans - including a large number of government employees - speak little or no English. Moreover, Puerto Rico's political parties have always run their election campaigns exclusively in Spanish.

Given that recent statistics from the 2006 Puerto Rico Community Survey cast doubt on previous Census 2000 language findings, it's not clear that there is a need to establish English-language election ballots - at least on a Puerto Rico-wide basis - but the courts may rule otherwise.

Link (in Spanish): Quieren papeletas en inglés

Update

On August 27, 2008, U.S. District Court Judge José Fusté ordered the Commonwealth Elections Commission to have bilingual ballots available for the upcoming general election. The Popular Democratic Party's electoral commissioner appealed the ruling, but on September 4 the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit dismissed the appeal.

Link (in Spanish): "Yes" a las papeleta bilingüe

Belgium's ongoing crisis

2008-07-21T09:47:00.001-04:00

Last week, Belgium was plunged into political crisis once more when Prime Minister Yves Leterme offered to resign after only four months in power. Leterme assumed office last March - nine months after a general election was held in June 2007 - presiding over a coalition of Flemish and Francophone Christian Democrats and Liberals, as well as Francophone Socialists.

Belgium is linguistically divided between the Dutch-speaking Flemings in the north and the French-speaking Walloons in the south. Dutch speakers outnumber Francophones by a ratio of approximately 3-to-2, but the country was originally established in 1830 as an unitary polity with French as the sole official language; Dutch would not gain equal footing with French until 1898. Since 1970 a series of constitutional reforms have gradually transformed Belgium into a federal kingdom, and the two linguistic communities co-exist peacefully (along with a small German-speaking minority in the south-eastern part of the country), but relations are sometimes less than cordial, to put it mildly. Currently, Flemish parties want greater powers over taxation and social security to be devolved to the regions, although politicians in Wallonia - which is plagued by high unemployment - fear that would lead to a cut in subsidies from wealthier Flanders. In addition, both sides have been at odds over the rights of French speakers living in Flemish suburbs around Brussels, the officially bilingual capital of Belgium.

Leterme's government originally planned to focus mainly on immigration, tax cuts and pension benefits (although little was accomplished beyond balancing the budget), while largely avoiding the thorny issue of constitutional reform for further devolution of powers to the regions (other than for the transfer of minor powers over industrial policy and housing); instead, talks on increased devolution were to continue. However, the parties were unable to reach an agreement on the issue by Leterme's self-imposed deadline of July 15, triggering his resignation. While King Albert II subsequently rejected Leterme's offer to step down, the crisis is far from over, and the Belgian monarch appointed three senior political figures to find a way out of the impasse.

The ongoing crisis has led to renewed speculation about the possible break-up of Belgium into separate Flemish and Walloon nations, not unlike the peaceful, "velvet divorce" dissolution of Czechoslovakia in 1992. In fact, opinion polls indicate nearly one out of every two Flemings support the establishment of a sovereign Flanders. However, it should be noted that in Czechoslovakia the Czechs and the Slovaks lived within clearly defined, contiguous geographical areas which became the country's successor states, whereas Belgium's overwhelmingly Francophone capital, Brussels, is surrounded by Flemish territory, and it's far from clear what would become of it if the country actually broke up.

Ingrid Robeyns' The ingredients of the Belgian cocktail, published on Crooked Timber, has an excellent, in-depth review of the issues affecting Belgium. In addition, Federal Elections in Belgium has an overview of Belgium's electoral system and party politics, along with Belgian parliamentary election results since 1995, which now include multi-member constituency-level maps for the 2003 and 2007 general elections.

Puerto Rico's 2008 Democratic presidential primary

2008-06-01T00:00:00.032-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

Puerto Rico, a U.S. Commonwealth, will hold a Democratic Party presidential primary on Sunday, June 1^st, 2008. The upcoming primary is the Democrats' first election event in the Caribbean island since 1995, when a primary was held for the position of local party chairman. Puerto Ricans are citizens of the United States, but U.S. citizens residing in Puerto Rico don’t vote in presidential elections, and don’t pay federal income taxes on income from sources in Puerto Rico (but pay Social Security and Medicare taxes).

Primary results are available at the bottom of this posting, under Update.

Although the U.S. Democratic and Republican parties hold presidential primaries in Puerto Rico, they don’t take part in the island’s general elections. Puerto Rican politics revolve around the status issue, that is the island’s political relationship with the U.S., and Puerto Rico has two major parties: the Popular Democratic Party (PPD), which favors retention of Commonwealth status, and the New Progressive Party (PNP), which promotes U.S. statehood. There are also two minor parties: the Puerto Rican Independence Party (PIP), which advocates the establishment of a sovereign republic, and Puerto Ricans for Puerto Rico (PPR), a recently-created, environmentalist-oriented party that doesn't take sides on the status issue.

There is a general consensus that Senator Hillary Clinton will prevail over Senator Barack Obama, but there has been much speculation regarding the voter turnout rate in the primary. As such, a brief overview of turnout in Puerto Rico election events is presented here, followed by an estimate of voter turnout in Sunday’s primary.

Puerto Rico has usually had a much higher turnout in general elections than the U.S. proper. For example, the island’s 2000 and 2004 general elections had turnout rates of 82.4% and 81.7% of registered voters, respectively. While these figures drop to 74.2% and 70% when turnout is calculated on the basis of the voting age population, they remain substantially higher than the voting age population turnout rates for the 2000 and 2004 U.S. presidential elections, which stood at 51.2% and 56.7%, respectively. Likewise, the 1993 and 1998 status plebiscites also had relatively high turnout rates: 73.5% and 71.3% of registered voters, respectively.

However, turnout for other election events held in Puerto Rico has been smaller than in general elections and status plebiscites. The 2003 and 2008 PPD and PNP local primaries had combined turnout rates of 37.6% and 44.4% of registered voters, while the 2005 unicameralism referendum had a turnout of only 22.6% of registered voters.

As for the Democratic primaries previously held in Puerto Rico, the highest turnout to date was registered in the 1980 presidential primary, in which nearly fifty percent of the electorate turned out to vote: it’s not possible to provide an accurate figure due to problems with the electoral registry at the time, but the total number of voters in the primary was 886,280. However, it should be noted that primary set a pattern that would repeat itself in some subsequent Democratic events (but not in 2008): the Popular Democrats and the New Progressives lined up behind opposing candidates - the former supported Sen. Ted Kennedy, the latter then-President Jimmy Carter - and the primary became a general election dress rehearsal; Carter won, and the two parties had results nearly identical to those of the 1976 general election.

The other two Democratic events that have attracted a substantial turnout were the 1988 primaries (for both presidential preference and local party chairman), and the aforementioned 1995 primary. In both occasions, turnout was relatively high for a primary – about one-third of the electorate – because the party chairman primary became once more a general election dress rehearsal, in which the Popular Democrats and the New Progressives backed their respective candidates; in both cases, the Popular Democratic Party candidates - Miguel Hernández-Agosto in 1988 and Celeste Benítez in 1995 – prevailed over Carlos Romero-Barceló, backed by the New Progressive Party. The 1988 primary had a turnout of 671,358 voters, while 722,371 voters took part in the 1995 primary; the latter figure increases to 738,064 if blank, unadjudicated and provisional ballots are included in the total. However, in the 1988 presidential preference primary, which was a "beauty contest" essentially overlooked by Puerto Rico’s two major parties - uncommitted delegates were chosen along with the party chairman – there were only 314,146 voters…and to everyone’s surprise, Jesse Jackson won with thirty-two percent of the vote.

In any event, this result showed that turnout in presidential primary processes depends upon mobilization of the electorate by Puerto Rico’s political parties, especially when events become general election dress rehearsals. However, when that element has been missing, voter turnout has collapsed – as was in the case in 1988.

Something similar happened in the 2005 unicameralism referendum, which had the lowest turnout of any election event in Puerto Rico, other than primaries. Neither of the two major parties was fully committed behind either of the two ballot options - in truth, both parties would have preferred not to hold the referendum in the first place, but they couldn’t agree on whether to postpone or cancel it. Moreover, well before election day there were several developments that were indicative of voter apathy over the event. Specifically, there were problems with the recruitment of poll workers, and the number of absentee ballot requests was nearly insignificant.

The case of the 2005 referendum is illustrative, as it shares a number of parallels with the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. None of the two major parties is committed behind either presidential candidate (there are Popular Democrats and New Progressives behind both Hillary Clinton as well as Barack Obama), once again there have been problems with the recruitment of poll workers (which have made it necessary to reduce the number of polling places from 3,000 to 2,300), and the number of absentee ballot requests is almost identical to the 2005 figure – and just as insignificant.

That said, the visits to Puerto Rico by Sen. Obama and (especially) Sen. Clinton have generated considerable interest, which could influence voter turnout in the primary. Meanwhile, voter turnout estimates vary from a minimum of 200,000 to a maximum of over one million. When asked by the news media, I have estimated 600,000 voters, plus or minus 100,000, that is 500,000 to 700,000 voters. This would be about 25% of Puerto Rico’s 2,367,000 registered voters for the primary, plus or minus four percent, for a turnout rate along the lines of the 2005 referendum - which could nonetheless vary depending on the impact that may have the presidential candidates’ electoral campaign activities in Puerto Rico.

In fact, the Commonwealth Elections Commission, which usually prints a number of paper ballots equal to three times the number of voters that are expected to turn out in an election event, has printed about 1,800,000 ballots for the primary, which suggests the agency expects about 600,000 voters to take part in the event. Moreover, the chairman of the Commission has estimated he expects more than half a million voters to turn out. At any rate, tonight we will know if these estimates are accurate or not.

Update

2008 Democratic presidential primary results issued by the Commonwealth Elections Commission have confirmed findings from various exit polls, which had Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama by a wide margin.

With 100% of the vote tallied, Sen. Clinton has won 263,120 votes (68%) to Sen. Obama's 121,458 (32%). At just over 16%, voter turnout in the primary has been much smaller than anticipated.

La primaria presidencial demócrata de 2008 en Puerto Rico

2008-06-01T00:00:00.031-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Puerto Rico, un Estado Libre Asociado de los EE.UU., celebrará primarias presidenciales del Partido Demócrata el domingo, 1^ro de junio de 2008. La primaria que se avecina es el primer evento electoral de los demócratas en la isla caribeña desde 1995, cuando se celebró una primaria para el cargo de presidente local del partido. Los puertorriqueños son ciudadanos de los EE.UU., pero los ciudadanos estadounidenses residentes en Puerto Rico no votan en elecciones presidenciales, y no pagan contribuciones federales sobre ingresos procedentes de fuentes en Puerto Rico (pero sí pagan contribuciones del Seguro Social y Medicare).

Los resultados de la primaria se encuentran al final de esta entrada, bajo Actualización.

Aunque los partidos Demócrata y Republicano de los EE.UU. celebran primarias presidenciales en Puerto Rico, éstos no participan en las elecciones generales de la isla. La política en Puerto Rico gira en torno al tema del status, es decir la relación política de la isla con los EE.UU., y Puerto Rico cuenta con dos partidos principales: el Partido Popular Democrático (PPD), favorecedor de retener la condición de Estado Libre Asociado, y el Partido Nuevo Progresista (PNP), que promueve la estadidad federada. Hay también dos partidos menores: el Partido Independentista Puertorriqueño (PIP), que aboga por el establecimiento de una república soberana, y Puertorriqueños por Puerto Rico (PPR), partido de orientación ambientalista y de reciente creación, que no toma bandos en el tema del status.

Existe un consenso generalizado de que la senadora Hillary Clinton prevalecerá sobre el senador Barack Obama, pero se ha especulado mucho en torno a la tasa de participación electoral en la primaria. Como tal, una breve exposición de la participación en los eventos electores de Puerto Rico se presenta a continuación, seguida de un estimado de la participación en la primaria del domingo.

Puerto Rico ha tenido usualmente una participación en elecciones generales mucho mayor que la de los EE.UU. Por ejemplo, las elecciones generales de 2000 y 2004 en la isla tuvieron unas tasas de participación de electores inscritos de 82.4% y 81.7%, respectivamente. Aunque estas cifras bajan a 74.2% y 70% cuando la participación se calcula sobre la base de la población con edad para votar, las mismas siguen siendo sustancialmente más altas que las tasas de participación de personas con edad para votar en las elecciones presidenciales de 2000 y 2004 en los EE.UU., que quedaron en 51.2% y 56.7%, respectivamente. Asimismo, los plebiscitos de status de 1993 y 1998 también tuvieron tasas de participación relativamente altas: 73.5% y 71.3% de los electores inscritos, respectivamente.

Sin embargo, la participación en otros eventos electorales celebrados en Puerto Rico ha sido menor que para las elecciones generales y los plebiscitos de status. Las primarias locales del PPD y el PNP de 2003 y 2008 tuvieron tasas de participación combinadas de 37.6% y 44.4% de los electores inscritos, mientras que el referéndum de unicameralidad de 2005 tuvo una participación de solamente un 22.6% de los electores inscritos.

En cuanto a las primarias demócratas celebradas anteriormente en Puerto Rico, la participación electoral más alta hasta la fecha se registró en la primaria presidencial de 1980, en la cual casi un cincuenta por ciento del electorado fue a votar: no es posible informar una cifra precisa debido a los problemas que hubo en aquel entonces con el registro electoral, pero el número total de votantes en la primaria fue de 886,280. Sin embargo, debe observarse que esta primaria estableció un patrón que se repetiría en algunos eventos posteriores de los demócratas (pero no en 2008): los populares y los novoprogresistas se alinearon detrás de candidatos opuestos – los primeros apoyaron al senador Ted Kennedy, los segundos al entonces presidente Jimmy Carter - y la primaria se convirtió en un ensayo de elección general; Carter ganó, y los dos partidos obtuvieron resultados casi idénticos a los de las elecciones generales de 1976.

Los otros dos eventos demócratas que han atraído una participación sustancial fueron las primarias de 1988 (tanto de preferencia presidencial como para la presidencia local del partido), y la ya mencionada primaria de 1995. En ambas ocasiones, la participación fue relativamente alta para una primaria – aproximadamente una tercera parte del electorado – toda vez que la primaria para la presidencia del partido se convirtió nuevamente en ensayo de elección general, en la cual los populares y los novoprogresistas respaldaron a sus respectivos candidatos; en ambos casos, los candidatos del Partido Popular – Miguel Hernández Agosto en 1988 y Celeste Benítez en 1995 – prevalecieron sobre Carlos Romero Barceló, respaldado por el Partido Nuevo Progresista. La primaria de 1988 tuvo una participación de 671,358 votantes, mientras que en la primaria de 1995 participaron 722,371 electores; esta última cifra aumenta a 738,064 si se incluyen en el total los votos en blanco, no adjudicados y añadidos a mano. Sin embargo, en la primaria de preferencia presidencial de 1988, que fue un "concurso de belleza" esencialmente pasado por alto por los dos partidos principales de Puerto Rico – se escogieron a delegados no comprometidos junto con el presidente del partido – hubo solamente 314,146 votantes...y para sorpresa de todos, Jesse Jackson ganó con un treinta y dos por ciento de los votos.

De cualquier manera, este resultado mostró que la participación en los procesos de primarias presidenciales depende claramente de la movilización del electorado por parte de los partidos políticos de Puerto Rico, especialmente cuando los eventos se convierten en ensayo de elección general. Sin embargo, cuando no ha estado presente ese elemento, la participación electoral se ha desplomado – como sucedió en 1988.

Algo parecido sucedió en el referéndum de unicameralidad de 2005, que tuvo la participación más baja de evento electoral alguno celebrado en Puerto Rico, aparte de las primarias. Ninguno de los dos partidos principales estaba completamente comprometido con una u otra de las dos opciones en la papeleta - en realidad, ambos partidos hubieran preferido que no se celebrara el referéndum en primer lugar, pero no pudieron ponerse de acuerdo en torno a si debían posponerlo o cancelarlo. Más aún, mucho antes del día de la elección hubo varios sucesos que indicaban la apatía del electorado en torno al evento. En particular, hubo problemas con el reclutamiento de funcionarios de los colegios de votación, y el número de solicitudes de voto ausente fue casi insignificante.

El caso del referéndum de 2005 es ilustrativo, toda vez que comparte un número de paralelos con la primaria presidencial de 2008. Ninguno de los dos partidos principales está comprometido con uno u otro candidato presidencial (hay populares y novoprogresistas tanto con Hillary Clinton como con Barack Obama), nuevamente ha habido problemas con el reclutamiento de los funcionarios de colegios de votación (lo cual ha hecho necesario reducir el número de colegios de 3,000 a 2,300), y el número de solicitudes de voto ausente ha sido casi idéntico a la cifra de 2005 – e igualmente insignificante.

Dicho esto, las visitas a Puerto Rico del senador Obama y (especialmente) de la senadora Clinton han generado un interés considerable, que pudiera influir sobre la participación en la primaria. Entre tanto, los estimados de participación electoral varían desde un mínimo de 200,000 hasta un máximo de más de un millón de votantes. A preguntas de los medios noticiosos, yo he estimado unos 600,000 votantes, más o menos 100,000, es decir de 500,000 a 700,000 votantes. Esto sería un 25% de los 2,367,000 electores inscritos en Puerto Rico para la primaria, más o menos un cuatro por ciento, para una tasa de participación que se aproxima a la del referéndum de 2005 - pero que pudiera variar dependiendo del impacto que tengan las actividades de campaña electoral en Puerto Rico de los candidatos presidenciales.

De hecho, la Comisión Estatal de Elecciones, que suele imprimir una cantidad de papeletas de votación igual a tres veces el número de votantes que se espera que acudan a un evento electoral, ha impreso cerca de 1,800,000 papeletas para la primaria, lo cual sugiere que la agencia espera que participen en el evento unos 600,000 electores. Más aún, el presidente de la Comisión ha declarado que espera una participación de más de medio millón de electores. De cualquier manera, en la noche de hoy sabremos si estos estimados son acertados o no.

Actualización

Los resultados de la primaria presidencial demócrata de 2008 emitidos por la Comisión Estatal de Elecciones han confirmado los hallazgos de varias encuestas de boca de urna, que colocaron a Hillary Clinton al frente de Barack Obama por un amplio margen.

Con el 100% de los votos contabilizados, la senadora Clinton ha obtenido 263,120 votos (68%) frente a 121,458 (32%) para el senador Obama. La participación electoral en la primaria, que ha quedado en poco más de 16%, ha sido mucho menor de lo que se anticipaba.