Electoral Panorama / Panorama Electoral

Costa Rica 2010 general election results link

2010-02-07T23:48:00.006-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The nacion.com website has live results in Spanish of today's general election in Costa Rica.

General Elections in Costa Rica now includes a description of the Central American country's electoral system, as well as results of presidential and legislative elections held between 1953 and 2006.

Enlace a resultados de elecciones generales de 2010 en Costa Rica

2010-02-07T23:48:00.005-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

La web de nacion.com tiene resultados en vivo de las elecciones generales celebradas hoy en Costa Rica.

Elecciones Generales en Costa Rica incluye ahora una descripción del sistema electoral del país centroamericano, así como los resultados de las elecciones presidenciales y legislativas celebradas entre 1953 y 2006.

Czech Republic's general election set for next May 28-29

2010-02-06T21:11:00.004-04:00

Czech President Václav Klaus announced yesterday that elections to the Chamber of Deputies - the lower house of the Central European country's bicameral Parliament - will be held next May 28 and 29.

In March of last year, the Czech Republic's center-right coalition government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek collapsed after losing a parliamentary vote of confidence, and the country was to hold an early legislative election the following October. In the meantime, President Klaus appointed an interim government headed by Jan Fischer, the non-party chairman of the Czech Statistical Office.

I wrote a piece for Global Economy Matters about the cabinet crisis, titled Topolánek's toppling leads to early Czech election, but as it was the early vote never materialized: last September, the Constitutional Court struck down the law which reduced the length of the Chamber's term. Both houses of Parliament then passed a constitutional amendment to allow an early election to be held the following November, but the dissolution vote failed after the main opposition party, the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) had a change of heart and decided to oppose it, along with the Communists and the Greens.

Parliamentary Elections in the Czech Republic - Elections to the Chamber of Deputies has an overview of the Czech electoral system, as well as lower house election results since 1996.

Ukraine 2010 presidential election update

2010-01-26T21:16:00.002-04:00

Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine has updated results of the first round of Ukraine's 2010 presidential election, published yesterday by the Central Election Commission of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Serhij Vasylchenko now has 2010 presidential election maps by raions and cities of Ukraine on his personal website. Finally, 2010 presidential election maps are also available at Ukraine Election Map (2004 to 2010).

Update-on-the-update

Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine now has detailed results of the February 7 presidential runoff election, published on Wednesday, February 10, 2010 by the Central Election Commission of Ukraine

Hungary's general election to be held next April 11 and 25

2010-01-22T13:52:00.004-04:00

Portfolio.hu reports that Hungarian President László Sólyom has set the date of Hungary's regularly scheduled parliamentary election to April 11 and 25. An election campaign is now underway in the Central European country, and recent polls indicate that Hungary's main opposition party, the right-of-center Fidesz remains set to score a landslide victory over the ruling, post-communist Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) - which has been in deep trouble for most of the past four years, as I've noted in my previous blog postings on Hungary over at Global Economy Matters (available here and here).

Hungary's 386-seat unicameral National Assembly is elected by one of the world's most complicated electoral systems, combining French-style runoff voting in single-member constituencies with regional-level party-list proportional representation and a cumbersome top-up national list that partially compensates parties for the disparities between votes and seats introduced by runoff voting at the constituency level and (to a lesser degree) PR at the county level. Nonetheless, if opinion poll figures hold, Fidesz's already enormous popular vote would in all likelihood translate into a parliamentary supermajority of two-thirds or more.

Elections to the Hungarian National Assembly has detailed results of parliamentary elections in Hungary since 1990, as well as a review of Hungary's electoral system; see also my comments on a discussion of electoral reform in Hungary at Fruits and Votes.

Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine

2010-01-22T00:37:00.000-04:00

Ukraine will be holding a presidential runoff election on Sunday, February 7, 2010, and Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine has detailed results of the first round held last January 17, as well as results for the 2004 repeat presidential runoff and the Supreme Council elections of 2006 and 2007.

Note that 2010 election statistics were aggregated from polling station-level data published on Ukraine's Central Election Commission's 2010 presidential election website, which as of January 20 included invalid ballot and voter registration figures.

Chile and Ukraine hold presidential elections

2010-01-17T17:34:00.002-04:00

Chile and Ukraine are holding presidential elections today, in both instances under the runoff voting system. The vote in Ukraine is a first round in which no candidate is expected to win an outright majority, in whose case a runoff election among the top two candidates would be held next February 7. Meanwhile, Chile already held presidential and parliamentary elections last December 13, but no candidate secured an absolute majority in the presidential poll, and Chilean voters will choose today between the top two candidates in last December's first round, namely Sebastián Piñera Echenique of the center-right Coalition for Change and former president Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle of the center-left Concertación, which has ruled Chile since 1990.

I've commented about both elections over at the Fruits and Votes blog posting on Presidential elections in Chile and Ukraine; more detailed postings will be available soon on Global Economy Matters.

In the meantime, Presidential and Legislative Elections in Chile has detailed results of Chilean general elections since 1989 (including last December's vote), while Chile's democratic restoration, two decades on presents an overview of Chilean politics since the restoration of constitutional rule in the South American nation in 1988-89.

Finally, ~~I do not have an Ukraine page yet, but~~ Ukraine holds an early parliamentary election has a comprehensive review of political developments in Ukraine since the Eastern European country attained independence in 1991, up to their early parliamentary poll in 2007.

Update

Sebastián Piñera Echenique has been elected President of Chile. With nearly all polling stations tallied, Piñera narrowly prevailed over former president Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle by a margin of 51.6% to 48.4%.

The Chilean Interior Ministry's 2009 Election Results website has live presidential runoff election results in Spanish.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's Central Election Commission website has live 2010 presidential election results here, in Ukrainian. Early figures have Viktor Yanukovych in first place but short of an absolute majority, with Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko firmly in second place. As for incumbent president Viktor Yushchenko, he is currently trailing in a distant fifth (that's right, fifth) place.

Chile page update

2009-11-16T14:47:00.008-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

Presidential and Legislative Elections in Chile now has constituency- and district-level results of Senate and Chamber of Deputies elections held in the South American country since 1989, as well as a description of the electoral system in place for the upcoming December 13 general election.

Actualización de la página de Chile

2009-11-16T14:47:00.007-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Elecciones Presidenciales y Legislativas en Chile cuenta ahora con los resultados a nivel de circuncripción y de distrito de las elecciones al Senado y la Cámara de Diputados celebradas en el país sudamericano desde 1989, así como una descripción del sistema electoral en vigor para las elecciones generales del próximo 13 de diciembre.

Elecciones México 2009: Distribución estimada de escaños

2009-07-07T00:30:00.003-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

A partir de los resultados preliminares de las elecciones congresionales celebradas en México el pasado domingo, la distribución de escaños en la Cámara de Diputados sería la siguiente: PRI, 237; PAN, 143; PRD, 71; PVEM, 21; PT, 13; PANAL, 9; C, 6.

El total estimado para el PRI se compone de 183 diputados electos por mayoría relativa (incluyendo a 46 en coalición con PVEM) y 54 por representación proporcional; normalmente, al PRI le corresponderían 79 escaños de lista, pero en dicho caso el partido terminaría con un total de 262 escaños, ó 52.4% del número total de diputados. Sin embargo, según la Constitución de México a ningún partido se le puede adjudicar una proporción de escaños en la Cámara que exceda su proporción del voto a nivel nacional por más de ocho puntos porcentuales, sin tomar en cuenta los votos nulos o los votos emitidos para partidos con menos de dos por ciento. Al haber obtenido un 39.5% de los votos emitidos para los siete partidos con al menos dos por ciento de los votos, el PRI solamente puede elegir 237 diputados, es decir un 47.4% del total de escaños.

Entre tanto, los estimados de escaños para el PVEM y el PT incluyen a cuatro y tres diputados por mayoría relativa, electos en coalición con el PRI y Convergencia, respectivamente.

Mexico Election 2009: Seat distribution estimate

2009-07-07T00:30:00.002-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

On the basis of preliminary results of last Sunday's congressional election in Mexico, the distribution of seats in the Chamber of Deputies would be as follows: PRI, 237; PAN, 143; PRD, 71; PVEM, 21; PT, 13; PANAL, 9; C, 6.

PRI's estimated total is composed of 183 deputies elected by first-past-the-post (including 46 in coalition with PVEM) and 54 by proportional representation; normally, PRI would be entitled to 79 list seats, but in that case the party would end up with a total of 262 seats, or 52.4% of the total number of deputies. However, according to the Constitution of Mexico no party can be awarded a proportion of Chamber seats exceeding its nationwide vote proportion by more than eight percentage points, disregarding invalid ballots or votes cast for parties with less than two percent. By having obtained 39.5% of the votes cast for the seven parties with at least two percent of the vote, PRI can only elect 237 deputies, that is 47.4% of the seat total.

Meanwhile, seat estimates for PVEM and PT include four and three first-past-the-post deputies, elected in coalition with PRI and Convergencia, respectively.

On India's election, and its economy

2009-05-18T23:19:00.004-04:00

Global Economy Matters now features two postings about India, which just held a general election. India's 2009 general election delivers a surprise outcome covers the vote in the world's largest democratically-ruled country, while Edward Hugh puts forward an intriguing question: Is The Indian Economy Heading For Its Finest Hour?

Eastern Europe update

2009-03-29T12:04:00.005-04:00

Bulgaria holds a parliamentary election this year, currently scheduled for June 14. Elections to the Bulgarian National Assembly has the results of legislative elections in Bulgaria since 1991, as well as an overview of Bulgaria's proportional representation electoral system.

Detailed election statistics are also available in Bulgarian Elections since 1991; the site's introductory pages are in Bulgarian, but results are available in both Bulgarian and English.

The Czech Republic's center-right coalition government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek collapsed last week after losing a parliamentary vote of confidence, and the Central European country will be holding an early legislative election this year, following an agreement between Topolánek, who heads the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), the largest party in Parliament, and Jiří Paroubek, the leader of the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD), the main opposition party.

The election is expected to be held by October, but the actual date has not been determined yet. Parliamentary Elections in the Czech Republic - Elections to the Chamber of Deputies has an overview of the Czech electoral system, as well as lower house election results since 1996.

Update-on-the-update: Topolánek's toppling leads to early Czech election, on Global Economy Matters covers the ongoing cabinet crisis.

Hungarian Prime Minister Gyurcsány steps down - now what?, on Global Economy Matters covers the announced departure of Hungary's head of government.

Elections to the Hungarian National Assembly has a description of Hungary's complicated electoral system, as well as parliamentary election results since 1990.

Macedonia and Moldova go to the polls next April 5, the former for a presidential runoff election, the latter for parliamentary elections. Election links for both countries are available on Election Resources on the Internet: Central and Eastern Europe.

Montenegro holds an early parliamentary election today, eighteen months ahead of schedule. The Republic Electoral Commission has the results of the preceding 2006 general election in Montenegrin (Serbian).

Update-on-the-update: Montenegro's Republic Electoral Commission now has 2009 election results on its website.

Slovakia, which held a presidential election last March 21, returns to the polls next Saturday, April 4 for a runoff vote. Presidential and Legislative Elections in Slovakia has the results of national elections in Slovakia since 1994, and an overview of the Slovak electoral system, while Slovakia's 2009 presidential election, on Global Economy Matters has more information about this year's presidential vote.

Finally, Turkey holds local elections today that are seen as a referendum on the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. AKP narrowly avoided being outlawed last year, as detailed in Elections to the Turkish Grand National Assembly.

Update-on-the-update: Turkish newsdaily Hurriyet ("Liberty") has live 2009 election results in English and Turkish here; live results are also available in Turkish only on NTVMSNBC's Election 2009 website.

PSdeG-PSOE also wins an additional seat in the Galician Parliament

2009-03-10T09:52:00.009-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The Party of Galician Socialists (PSdeG-PSOE) has won an additional seat in the Galician Parliament after absentee votes were tallied in the province of Ourense (Orense), according to Spanish news media reports.

In the election to the Galician Parliament held at the beginning of this month, the Popular Party (PP) won the last of Ourense's fourteen seats with a quotient of 12,895 (for a total of eight mandates), while PSdeG-PSOE obtained four seats and attained a quotient of 12,833 for a fifth mandate. However, the Galician Socialists won 7,979 votes from Galician voters residing abroad to 6,465 for PP, which were more than enough to modify the preliminary seat allocation: PSdeG-PSOE only needed to obtain 311 additional votes, and then five votes for every eight won by PP.

As a result, the distribution of seats in the Galician Parliament now stands as follows:

PP - 38
PSdeG-PSOE - 25
BNG - 12

The loss of Ourense's last seat reduces PP's absolute majority to a single vote, while PSdeG-PSOE now has the same number of mandates it won four years ago.

Link (in Spanish): El voto emigrante da un quinto escaño al PSdeG

PSdeG-PSOE también consigue escaño adicional en el Parlamento de Galicia

2009-03-10T09:52:00.007-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

El Partido dos Socialista de Galicia (PSdeG-PSOE) ha conseguido un escaño adicional en el Parlamento de Galicia luego de que se contabilizara el voto ausente en la provincia de Ourense (Orense), según informes de los medios noticiosos de España.

En las elecciones al Parlamento de Galicia celebradas a principios de este mes, el Partido Popular (PP) consiguió el último de los catorce escaños de Ourense con un cociente de 12,895 (para un total de ocho mandatos), mientras que PSdeG-PSOE obtuvo cuatro escaños y alcanzó un cociente de 12,833 para un quinto mandato. Sin embargo, los socialistas gallegos consiguieron 7,979 votos de electores gallegos residentes en el extranjero frente a 6,465 para el PP, los cuales fueron más que suficientes para modificar el reparto preliminar de escaños: el PSdeG-PSOE solamente necesitaba obtener 311 votos adicionales, y entonces cinco votos por cada ocho que obtuviera el PP.

Como resultado, la distribución de escaños en el Parlamento de Galicia queda ahora de la siguiente manera:

PP - 38
PSdeG-PSOE - 25
BNG - 12

La pérdida del último escaño en Ourense reduce la mayoría absoluta del PP a un solo escaño, mientras que PSdeG-PSOE cuenta ahora con el mismo número de mandatos que obtuvo hace cuatro años.

Enlace: El voto emigrante da un quinto escaño al PSdeG

PSE-EE captures additional seat in Basque Parliament

2009-03-06T11:25:00.010-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The Spanish news media reports that the Socialist Party of Euskadi-Euskadi Left (PSE-EE/PSOE) has won an additional seat in the Basque Parliament, following today's tally of absentee votes in the province of Araba (Álava).

In last Sunday's election to the Basque Parliament, Basque Solidarity (EA) won the last of Araba's twenty-five seats with 5,267 votes, narrowly ahead of PSE-EE, which had a quotient of 5,266 for a ninth mandate. However, EA won only six votes from Basque voters residing abroad to 140 for PSE-EE, which divided by nine are more than enough to overcome EA's lead in the preliminary count.

According to Europa Press, the distribution of the CERA (absentee) vote in Araba was as follows:

EAJ/PNV - 146
PSE-EE/PSOE - 140
PP - 83
EB-B - 16
UPyD - 12
Aralar - 7
EA - 6
Others - 9

As a result, the distribution of seats in the Basque Parliament now stands as follows:

EAJ-PNV - 30
PSE-EE/PSOE - 25
PP - 13
Aralar - 4
EA - 1
EB-B - 1
UPyD - 1

The loss of Araba's seat is a fresh setback for the EA party, which lost its single seat in the Congress of Deputies in last year's general election in Spain, and now will be reduced to a single seat in the Basque Parliament (down from seven won four years ago in coalition with EAJ-PNV). But more importantly, Spain's two major parties - PSOE and PP - will command a joint majority of one vote in the Basque legislature, and PSE-EE leader Patxi López could form a government solely with PP support, without having to depend on the anti-nationalist Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD).

Link (in Spanish): El PSE-EE obtiene 140 votos de los residentes en el extranjero, frente a los 6 de EA

PSE-EE captura un escaño adicional en el Parlamento Vasco

2009-03-06T11:25:00.008-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Los medios noticiosos de España informan que el Partido Socialista de Euskadi-Euskadiko Ezkerra (PSE-EE/PSOE) ha conseguido un escaño adicional en el Parlamento Vasco, tras la contabilización en el día de hoy del voto ausente en la provincia de Araba (Álava).

En las elecciones al Parlamento Vasco del pasado domingo, Eusko Alkartasuna (EA) consiguió el último de los veinticinco escaños de Araba con 5,267 votos, escasamente al frente de PSE-EE, que tenía un cociente de 5,266 para un noveno mandato. Sin embargo, EA solamente obtuvo seis votos de electores vascos residentes en el extranjero frente a 140 para PSE-EE, los cuales divididos por nueve son más que suficientes para superar la ventaja de EA en el conteo preliminar.

Según Europa Press, la distribución del voto CERA en Araba quedó de la siguiente manera:

EAJ/PNV - 146
PSE-EE/PSOE - 140
PP - 83
EB-B - 16
UPyD - 12
Aralar - 7
EA - 6
Otros - 9

Como resultado, la distribución de escaños en el Parlamento Vasco queda ahora de la siguiente manera:

EAJ-PNV - 30
PSE-EE/PSOE - 25
PP - 13
Aralar - 4
EA - 1
EB-B - 1
UPyD - 1

La pérdida del escaño en Araba constituye un nuevo revés para EA, formación que perdió su único escaño en el Congreso de los Diputados en las elecciones generales celebradas en España el año pasado, y que ahora quedará reducida a un solo escaño en el Parlamento Vasco (de siete que obtuvo hace cuatro años en coalición con EAJ-PNV). Pero más importante aún, los dos partidos principales de España - el PSOE y el PP - ostentarán una mayoría conjunta de un voto en la legislatura vasca, y el líder del PSE-EE, Patxi López podría formar gobierno exclusivamente con el apoyo del PP, sin tener que depender de la anti-nacionalista Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD).

Enlace: El PSE-EE obtiene 140 votos de los residentes en el extranjero, frente a los 6 de EA

Elections in Galicia and the Basque Country

2009-02-18T12:55:00.005-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The self-governing communities of Galicia and the Basque Country (Euskadi), located in northwestern and northern Spain, respectively, go to the polls on Sunday, March 1^st, 2009, to elect their devolved legislatures. The results of autonomic elections held in Galicia from 1981 to 2009 and in Euskadi from 1980 to 2009, as well as an overview of the Galician and Basque proportional representation electoral systems are now available in Elections to the Galician Parliament and Elections to the Basque Parliament.

The 2009 Basque Parliament election will be the first autonomic poll in which radical nationalist parties linked to the ETA terrorist group won't participate. I have written a commentary on the topic for the Hotline section of JURIST, the University of Pittsburgh School of Law blog, under Spain's ban on radical nationalist Basque parties adds unpredictability to March election.

Finally, the list of Spain election resources now includes a link to the Elections to the Galician Parliament 2009 official website, available in Galician and Spanish.

Elecciones en Galicia y el País Vasco

2009-02-18T12:55:00.004-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

Las comunidades autónomas de Galicia y el País Vasco (Euskadi), situadas en el noroeste y el norte de España, respectivamente, acuden a las urnas el domingo, 1^ro de marzo de 2009 para elegir sus legislaturas autonómicas. Los resultados de las elecciones autonómicas celebradas en Galicia de 1981 a 2009 y en Euskadi de 1980 a 2009, así como una breve exposición de los sistemas electorales de representación proporcional gallego y vasco están ahora disponibles en Elecciones al Parlamento de Galicia y Elecciones al Parlamento Vasco.

Las elecciones al Parlamento Vasco de 2009 serán la primera consulta autonómica en la cual no participarán partidos nacionalistas radicales vinculados al grupo terrorista ETA. He redactado un comentario en inglés sobre este asunto para la sección Hotline de JURIST, el blog de la Escuela de Derecho de la Universidad de Pittsburgh, bajo Spain's ban on radical nationalist Basque parties adds unpredictability to March election.

Finalmente, la lista de recursos electorales de España incluye ahora un enlace a la web oficial de las Elecciones al Parlamento de Galicia 2009, disponible en gallego y español.

2009 Israeli general election results

2009-02-11T01:57:00.005-04:00

As of February 12, 2009, the results of Tuesday's general election in Israel and the distribution of Knesset seats stand as follows:

Kadima - 758,032 votes (22.5%), 28 seats
Likud - 729,054 votes (21.6%), 27 seats
Yisrael Beitenu - 394,577 votes (11.7%), 15 seats
Labor Party - 334,900 votes (9.9%), 13 seats
Shas - 286,300 votes (8.5%), 11 seats
United Torah Judaism - 147,954 votes (4.4%), 5 seats
United Arab List-Ta'al - 113,954 votes (3.4%), 4 seats
National Union - 112,570 votes (3.3%), 4 seats
Hadash - 112,130 votes (3.3%), 4 seats
New Movement-Meretz - 99,611 votes (3.0%), 3 seats
Jewish Home (Habayit Hayehudi) - 96,765 votes (2.9%), 3 seats
National Democratic Assembly (Balad) - 83,739 votes (2.5%), 3 seats
Others - 103,904 votes (3.1%), no seats

The Israeli Knesset has full 2009 election results here (in Hebrew), while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has the distribution of Knesset seats (in English).

On Latvian parliamentary elections, past and future

2009-02-04T20:29:00.004-04:00

Is Latvia still headed for an early election?, on Global Economy Matters (and cross-posted on Latvia Economy Watch and Baltic Economy Watch) reviews current political developments in the Baltic republic, where the four-party coalition government of Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis prevailed today in a parliamentary vote of confidence.

Meanwhile, Part I of Elections to the Latvian Saeima (Parliament) is now available, with an overview of Latvia's proportional representation system and the results of the 1998, 2002 and 2006 parliamentary elections; I also reviewed Latvian politics two years ago in 2006 Parliamentary Elections in Latvia.

Elections to the Israeli Knesset

2009-02-01T00:20:00.003-04:00

Israel goes to the polls in nine days for an early parliamentary election, and Elections to the Israeli Knesset has an overview of the Jewish state's proportional representation electoral system, along with nationwide results of Knesset elections from 1992 to 2006.

El Salvador's quirky proportional representation system

2009-01-29T20:20:00.006-04:00

Matthew Shugart's Fruits and Votes blog has an in-depth discussion on the unusual behavior of the proportional representation system used in El Salvador, which held a legislative election last January 18.

The 84 members of the Central American nation's unicameral Legislative Assembly are chosen by the largest remainder method of PR in fourteen multi-member constituencies - the departments of El Salvador. However, the system often works to the advantage of smaller parties, particularly the right-wing National Conciliation Party (PCN), which elected eleven deputies (13.1% of the total) with just 8.8% of the vote. Meanwhile, the country's two major parties - the ruling, conservative Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) and the left-wing opposition Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) - ended up slightly under-represented in the Assembly.

In response to Prof. Shugart's suggestion about distributing Assembly seats by the D'Hondt rule, I calculated the notional distribution of Legislative Assembly seats under that procedure as well as other PR methods, and the results are actually quite surprising.

Incidentally, El Salvador's recently held poll was a warm-up act for the upcoming presidential election, scheduled to be held next March 15.

The sharp decline of Puerto Rico's voter turnout rate

2009-01-07T12:55:00.001-04:00

(Esta entrada está disponible también en español.)

The decline of Puerto Rico's voter turnout rate has accelerated following the 2008 election, but official statistics do not show the full scope of the problem.

The Commonwealth Elections Commission (CEE) reports that 1,942,931 out of 2,458,036 registered voters took part in the general election held last November 4, for a 79% voter turnout rate - a figure that not only stands 2.7% below the 81.7% that turned out to vote in the 2004 election, but also constitutes the fourth consecutive decline in turnout since 1992.

However, the CEE statistics don't take into account voting-age individuals who aren't registered, which represent a growing share of the population of Puerto Rico aged 18 years or older. In 2000 the voter registration rate - the percentage of the voting-age population registered to take part in election processes - stood at 90.1%, but this figure dropped to 85.6% in 2004, and to 82.7% in 2008. According to the 2008 population estimates released last December by the U.S. Census Bureau, Puerto Rico had 2,971,764 individuals aged 18 years or older, and therefore the voting-age population turnout rate for the 2008 election was just 65.4%, or 4.6% lower than in the 2004 election, in which the electorate that voted according to the official rolls constituted 70% of Puerto Rico's voting-age population.

In fact, the voter turnout rate for the population aged 18 years or older is not just markedly lower than the turnout figure for registered voters, but the gap separating both figures is widening, due to the collapse of the voter registration rate. Although the CEE has acknowledged that voter turnout in 2008 finished below its expectations, the agency has so far ignored the far more serious problem regarding the growing number of voting-age individuals that aren't registered; on the contrary, last September the Commission sought to present the small increase in the total number of registered voters (relative to the 2004 election) as a huge success.

Finally, it must be noted that while the turnout rate of Puerto Rico's voting-age population remains higher than that for the U.S. proper, the difference has shrunk dramatically over the course of this decade. In 2000, 74.2% of Puerto Rico's population aged 18 years or older voted in the general election, while in the United States only 51.2% turned out to vote, for a difference of twenty-three percentage points. However, 56.8% of the voting-age population took part in the U.S. 2008 general election, which is just 8.6% lower than in Puerto Rico.

El pronunciado declive de la tasa de participación electoral en Puerto Rico

2009-01-07T12:55:00.000-04:00

(This posting is also available in English.)

El declive de la tasa de participación electoral en Puerto Rico se ha acelerado tras las elecciones de 2008, pero las estadísticas oficiales no revelan el alcance del problema en su totalidad.

La Comisión Estatal de Elecciones (CEE) informa que 1,942,931 de 2,458,036 electores inscritos votaron en las elecciones generales celebradas el pasado 4 de noviembre, para una tasa de participación electoral de 79% - cifra que no solamente se sitúa 2.7% por debajo del 81.7% que acudió a votar en 2004, sino que también constituye el cuarto declive consecutivo de la tasa de participación desde 1992.

Sin embargo, las estadísticas de la CEE no toman en cuenta a las personas con edad para votar que no se inscriben, las cuales representan una porción creciente de la población de Puerto Rico de 18 años o más. En 2000 la tasa de inscripción electoral - el porciento de la población con edad para votar que está inscrito para participar en los procesos electorales - se situaba en 90.1%, pero esta cifra cayó a 85.6% en 2004 y a 82.7% en 2008. De acuerdo con los estimados de población para 2008 publicados el pasado mes de diciembre por el Negociado del Censo de los E.E.U.U., Puerto Rico contaba con 2,971,764 personas de 18 años de edad o más, y por lo tanto la tasa de participación electoral de personas con edad para votar en las elecciones de 2008 fue de solamente 65.4%, ó un 4.6% menos que en las elecciones de 2004, en las cuales el electorado que votó según lista constituyó el 70% de los habitantes de Puerto Rico con edad para votar.

De hecho, la tasa de participación electoral para la población de 18 años o más no solamente es marcadamente inferior a la cifra de participación para los electores inscritos, sino que la brecha que separa a ambas cifras se está ampliando, debido al colapso de la tasa de inscripción. Aunque la CEE ha reconocido que la participación electoral en 2008 quedó por debajo de sus expectativas, hasta la fecha la agencia ha ignorado el problema mucho más serio en torno al número creciente de personas con edad para votar que no están inscritos; por el contrario, en septiembre del año pasado la Comisión procuró presentar el reducido aumento del total de electores inscritos (con respecto a las elecciones de 2004) como un gran éxito.

Finalmente, debe señalarse que si bien la tasa de participación de la población de Puerto Rico con edad para votar sigue siendo mayor que la correspondiente a los E.E.U.U. propiamente dichos, la diferencia se ha reducido dramáticamente en el transcurso de esta década. En 2000, el 74.2% de la población de Puerto Rico de 18 años o más votó en las elecciones generales, mientras que en Estados Unidos solamente acudió a votar el 51.2%, para una diferencia de veintitrés puntos porcentuales. Sin embargo, el 56.8% de la población con edad para votar participó en las elecciones generales de 2008 en los E.U.U.U., lo cual es solamente un 8.6% menos que en Puerto Rico.